MatterOfStats 2016 : Team Dashboard for Round 23

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This week, as well as the full Team Dashboard, which appears at the end of this blog, I've included a short-form version of it that includes only the teams' actual and Expected Wwins (based on their Scoring Shot data and the MoS Win Production Function), their ranking on Expected Wins, and their ranking on the various metrics that appear within the Dashboard.

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MatterOfStats 2016 : Team Dashboard for Round 19

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This week, time to review the correlation between team rankings on the various scoring metrics and their ordering on the competition ladder. We find that the Spearman rank correlation between ladder rankings and rankings on:

  • Scoring Shots Generated per Game is +0.87
  • Scoring Shots Conceded per Game is +0.85
  • Own Scoring Shot Conversion Rate is +0.67
  • Opponent Scoring Shot Conversion Rate is +0.41
  • Quarter 1 performances is +0.79
  • Quarter 2 performances is +0.77
  • Quarter 3 performances is +0.85
  • Quarter 4 performances is +0.89
  • Expected Wins (using the MoS Win Production Function) is +0.94

Clearly then, Scoring Shot production and concession matters more than Scoring Shot Conversion, and later Quarters matter slightly more than earlier ones.

Lastly, let's look at how the number of games actually won by each team compares to what we'd expect they might have won given their scoring statistics interpreted through the Win Production Function:

Teams that have won more games than we'd expect:

  • Hawthorn: +2.3 games
  • St Kilda: +1.8 games
  • Richmond: +1.6 games
  • Gold Coast: +1.0 games
  • Western Bulldogs: +1.0 games

Teams that have won fewer games than we'd expect:

  • Port Adelaide: -2.4 games
  • Fremantle: -2.2 games
  • GWS: -1.6 games
  • Melbourne: -1.4 games
  • West Coast: -1.4 games
  • Sydney: -1.1 games