MatterOfStats 2016 : Team Dashboard for Round 16

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This week, time to review the correlations between teams' ladder positions and their ranking on the various metrics from the Dashboard:

  • Own Scoring Shots: +0.84
  • Opponent Scoring Shots: +0.88
  • Own Conversion: +0.55
  • Opponent Conversion: +0.33
  • Q1 Performances: +0.85
  • Q2 Performances: +0.72
  • Q3 Performances: +0.74
  • Q4 Performances: +0.81

In summary then, teams' current competition rankings are most associated with their Scoring Shot Concession and Production, and their 1st and 4th Quarter performances, and least associated with their Opponents' and Own Scoring Shot Conversion performances.

Next, a quick update on the comparison between teams' winning rates and the rate that their Scoring Shot statistics would imply (according to the MoS Win Production Function).

Teams that have won fewer games than expected:

  • Fremantle (2.0)
  • Port Adelaide (1.8)
  • West Coast (1.7)
  • GWS (1.5)
  • Melbourne (1.3)
  • Geelong (1.1)

Teams that have won more games than expected:

  • Hawthorn +1.9
  • Carlton +1.7
  • St Kilda +1.5
  • Western Bulldogs +1.5
  • Gold Coast +1.2

Ranking teams based on their expected winning percentage would give a top 8 as follows

  1. Sydney
  2. West Coast
  3. Adelaide
  4. GWS
  5. Geelong
  6. Hawthorn
  7. Western Bulldogs
  8. Kangaroos