MatterOfStats 2017 : Team Dashboard for Round 5

The latest Team Dashboard appears below. One striking feature of the details in the Dashboard is the contrasting fate of the Dockers and the Roos despite the generally better scoring statistics of the latter.

We have:

  • Scoring Shots per game: Fremantle 22.2 (15th) / Kangaroos 22.8 (14th)
  • Scoring Shots conceded per game: Fremantle 25.8 (12th) / Kangaroos 28.6 (16th)
  • Conversion Rate: Fremantle 50.5% (13th) / Kangaroos 53.5% (9th)
  • Opponents' Conversion Rate: Fremantle 57.4% (15th) / Kangaroos 51.7% (8th)

As a consequence, Fremantle have a 78 percentage, the Kangaroos an 82 percentage, but the former has a 3 and 2 record and the latter 0 and 5.

The MoS Winning Production Function (MWPF) provides one method for estimating what we might expect a team's winning percentage to be given its scoring statistics. It suggests that:

  • Fremantle have won 1.7 games more than their statistics would imply
  • Richmond have won 1.1 games more
  • The Western Bulldogs have won 0.9 games more
  • Geelong have won 0.7 games more
  • Adelaide and Essendon have won 0.6 games more

As well,

  • The Kangaroos have won 1.5 games fewer than their statistics would imply
  • Sydney have won 1.3 games fewer
  • Port Adelaide have won 1.0 games fewer
  • Collingwood have won 0.7 games fewer
  • Melbourne have won 0.6 games fewer

So, the MWPF would have Fremantle with a 1.3 and 3.7 record, and the Kangaroos a 1.5 and 3.5 record, which seems more in keeping with the scoring statistics.

We shouldn't be too surprised if the apparent differences between actual and expected wins tend to reduce over the remainder of the season.

which is the and this week I thought we might focus on what the MoS Win Product