MatterOfStats 2016 : Team Dashboard for Round 12

Despite winning by over 100 points this week, the Hawks still have the smallest percentage of any of the teams in the Top 8, having conceded about 20 or 30 goals more than any team except Adelaide, and having scored about 20 goals fewer than them.

Not surprisingly then, the Hawks are one of four teams assessed by MoS' Win Production Function as having won at least one game more than their scoring statistics would justify. In full, that list is:

  • Carlton: +1.8 wins over expectation
  • Kangaroos: +1.4 wins
  • Hawthorn: +1.1 wins
  • Richmond: +1.1 wins

Six more teams have won at least one game fewer than their scoring statistics imply:

  • Fremantle: -2.2 wins under expectation
  • West Coast: -1.7 wins
  • GWS: -1.4 wins
  • Port Adelaide: -1.3 wins
  • Melbourne: -1.2 wins
  • Adelaide: -1.1 wins

Had results gone according to the Win Production Function (and fractional wins were possible), the Top 8 would now be:

  1. GWS
  2. Sydney
  3. Geelong
  4. Adelaide
  5. West Coast
  6. Kangaroos
  7. Western Bulldogs
  8. Hawthorn