MatterOfStats 2016 : Team Dashboard for Round 14
/Again this week I'll refrain from any lengthy commentary until such time as bye-season has ended and all teams have played the same number of games.
Instead, I'll just note the surprising number of teams whose winning percentage is substantially different from what would be expected based on their Scoring Shot data and the MoS Win Production Function.
Currently, we have:
- Fremantle: 1.9 wins fewer than expected
- West Coast: 1.7 wins fewer than expected
- Port Adelaide: 1.6 wins fewer than expected
- Melbourne: 1.2 wins fewer than expected
- GWS 1.2 wins fewer than expected
- Adelaide: 0.9 wins fewer than expected
- Geelong: 0.9 wins fewer than expected
- Carlton: 1.9 wins more than expected
- Hawthorn: 1.6 wins more than expected
- Richmond: 1.2 wins more than expected
- St Kilda: 1.1 wins more than expected
Now the MoS Win Production Function was created almost five years ago, so it might be that there has been a permanent change in the way the competition rewards scoring behaviour. That's a possibility I intend to explore further during the off-season.
But, it might also be the case that some teams truly have done better (or been "luckier") and others done worse (or been less "lucky") at converting scoring behaviour into competition points and that we'll see some realignment between scoring behaviour and competition points, especially for the teams listed above, as the remainder of the home-and-away season plays out.
