AFLW 2026 - Simulations After Round 3

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This year’s post Round 3 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 85% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne: roughly 99% chances of being finalists; around 85% chances of Top 4; roughly 15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Carlton and Brisbane: roughly 90% chances of being finalists; around 50% chances of Top 4; roughly <0.5-3% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Geelong and Sydney: roughly 75-80% chances of being finalists; around 25-35% chances of Top 4; roughly <0.5-1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, and Hawthorn: around 55-60% chance of being finalists; 15% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Fremantle and Richmond: around 25-30% chance of being finalists; around 3-4% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Adelaide and Gold Coast: around 10-20% chance of being finalists; around 1-2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. GWS, Essendon, Collingwood, and West Coast: around 1-5% chance of being finalists; <0.5%% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. St Kilda: <0.5% chance of being finalists; <0.5%% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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AFLW 2026 - Simulations After Round 2

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This year’s post Round 2 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 99% chances of Top 4; roughly 85% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Brisbane: roughly 97% chances of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Melbourne and Carlton: roughly 50-60% chances of being finalists; around 50-60% chances of Top 4; roughly 3-5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Geelong and Sydney: roughly 75% chances of being finalists; around 25-35% chances of Top 4; roughly <0.5-1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide and Hawthorn: around 50-60% chance of being finalists; 10-20% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Fremantle and Richmond: around 30-35% chance of being finalists; around 5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Adelaide, Gold Coast, and GWS: around 10-20% chance of being finalists; around 1-2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Essendon, Collingwood, West Coast, and St Kilda: around 1-4% chance of being finalists; <0.5%% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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AFLW 2026 - Round 2 - Unders/Overs

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UpDATE 11AM SUNDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Sydney v Essendon: 2.2% u99.5 @ $1.87

  • Collingwood v Fremantle: 5.7% u83.5 @ $1.87

  • Melbourne v GWS: 1.6% u97.5 @ $1.87

  • Carlton v Adelaide: 0.3% u97.5 @ $1.87

  • Port Adelaide v Hawthorn: 1.6% u92.5 @ $1.87

UpDATE 11:30AM SATURDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Western Bulldogs v Richmond: 4.4% u84.5 @ $1.85

  • West Coast v Gold Coast: 3.6% u88.5 @ $1.85

  • Bribane v North Melbourne: 1.4% u98.5 @ $1.85

AFLW 2026 - Round 2

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We’ve a much more compact round this week with games spanning only Saturday and Sunday.

WoSHBODS is forecasting seven home team wins and two away wins, with only one of those wins by an underdog, albeit by an underdog that flipped to favouritism before I could place a wager.

The distribution of WoSHBODS expected margins is as follows:

  • Under 2 goals: 5 games

  • From 2 to under 4 goals: 2 games

  • Over 4 goals: 2 games

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AFLW 2026 - Simulations After Round 1

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This year’s post Round 1 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 65-70% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Brisbane: roughly 97% chances of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 20% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Melbourne, Port Adelaide, and Carlton: 75-85% chances of being finalists; around 35-50% chances of Top 4; roughly 2-4% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Sydney and Western Bulldogs: around 55-65% chance of being finalists; 20-25% chances of Top 4; roughly 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Richmond, Adelaide, Geelong, and Fremantle: around 30-45% chance of being finalists; around 5-10% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS, Hawthorn, and West Coast: around 20% chance of being finalists; around 3-4% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. St Kilda, Collingwood, Essendon, and Gold Coast: around 5-10% chance of being finalists; <0.5%-1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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AFLW 2026- Round 1 Results - Fine Start and Finish

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WoSHBODS tipped 7 from 9 winners this week, but the bookmakers tipped all 9.

They were out-forecast by WoSHBODS on margin tipping, however, as WoSHBODS registered a Margin MAE of 18.6 points per game compared to their 21.3 points per game.

The bookmakers were better on Totals forecasting with Totals MAE of 29.6 and 30.5 points per game compared to WoSHBODS’ 33.2 points per game.

WoSHBODS LPS of +2.32 bits compares to +0.24 bits for the two bookmakers.

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AFLW 2026 - Round 1 - Unders/Overs

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UpDATE 11AM SUNDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Essendon v Brisbane: 5.4% u93.5 @ $1.87

  • Adelaide v Sydney: 3.5% u93.5 @ $1.87

  • Fremantle v Port Adelaide: 0.8% u88.5 @ $1.87

  • GWS v West Coast: 1.1% o74.5 @ $1.85

UpDATE 10:30AM SATURDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • North Melbourne v Geelong: 5.8% u95.5 @ $1.85

  • Richmond v Collingwood: 2.1% u80.5 @ $1.87

UpDATE 12NOON THURSDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Hawthorn v Melbourne: 0.6% u85.5 @ $1.87

UpDATE 3PM SUNDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • St Kilda v Carlton: 2.1% o75.5 @ $1.87

AFLW 2026 - Round 1

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The staggering of games in Round 1 of the AFLW season sees the first game being played on Sunday, the second four days later, and the remainder two or three days after that. As such, currently there are only markets available for the first game and they see Carlton winning by about 4 points.

WoSHBODS, however, has thoughts about all nine games of the round, which include forecast wins by five away teams and four home teams.

The distribution of WoSHBODS expected margins is as follows:

  • Under 2 goals: 4 games

  • From 2 to under 4 goals: 4 games

  • Over 4 goals: 1 game

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AFLW 2026 - Simulations Before Round 1

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This year’s pre Round 1 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

Also, note that these are pre-season estimates and are therefore likely to have large standard errors associated with them. I expect them to change significantly over the next few weeks.

  1. North Melbourne: about 98% chances of being finalists; around 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 55% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Brisbane and Melbourne: 80-85% chances of being finalists; around 50-55% chances of Top 4; roughly 10-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Adelaide, Geelong, and Carlton: 60-65% chances of being finalists; around 25-35% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Port Adelaide, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, and Sydney: around 40-55% chance of being finalists; 15-25% chances of Top 4; 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. West Coast, Essendon, Collingwood, Hawthorn, St Kilda, and Richmond: around 20-35% chance of being finalists; around 5-10% chances of Top 4; roughly <0.5-1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS and Gold Coast: around 5-10% chance of being finalists; around 1-2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

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AFLW 2025 - Round 15 Results - Regression Free

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WoSHBODS and the two bookmakers tipped both winners this week.

WoSHBODS also recorded a Margin MAE of 16.2 points per game (compared to 21 and 20.6 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of just 3.3 points per game (compared to 8.2 points per game and 8.0 for the two bookmakers).

The LPS of +1.6 bits compares to +1.3 bits for the two bookmakers.

It’s truly been about as good a performance from WoSHBODS as I could have hoped for.

Overall, it’s now at 72% accuracy for the season, 22.3 Game Margin MAE, 16.2 Totals MAE, and +26.9 LPS.

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