AFLW 2026 - Round 1

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The staggering of games in Round 1 of the AFLW season sees the first game being played on Sunday, the second four days later, and the remainder two or three days after that. As such, currently there are only markets available for the first game and they see Carlton winning by about 4 points.

WoSHBODS, however, has thoughts about all nine games of the round, which include forecast wins by five away teams and four home teams.

The distribution of WoSHBODS expected margins is as follows:

  • Under 2 goals: 4 games

  • From 2 to under 4 goals: 4 games

  • Over 4 goals: 1 game

(NB: An earlier version of the table below had the Home Team Probability column in the wrong order - it was still following the order of games as originally scheduled. Thanks to eagle-eyed Thomas for picking this up and alerting me)

WoSHBODS Wagering

WoSHBODS will wager exactly as it did last year, which is to say that

  • it will bet in the Head-to-Head, Line, and Over/Under markets

  • it will 1/10th Kelly stake any bet that has a positive expected return (regardless of how small or how large)

  • its Combined Portfolio will comprise

    • 65% Line Fund

    • 25% Head to Head Fund

    • 10% Over/Under Fund

WAGERS

It’s been nothing but shenanigans in the AFLW markets for me in Round 1. The table at right shows what I’ve secured versus what I wanted.

As you can see, Investors have an interest in all but the Richmond v Collingwood games and has head-to-head bets in six games, in two games on favourites totalling just under 4% of the Head-to-Head Fund and in six games as underdogs totalling just over 9% of the Head-to-Head Fund.

They also have line wagers in seven games, in three games on favourites totalling 5% of the Line Fund and in four games as underdogs totalling just over 10% of the Line Fund.

In total, then, about 13% of the entire Combined Portfolio is at risk. In Round 1. With no established team form.

I’m sure we’ll be wise after the event no matter what happens this weekend.

READY RECKONER

This week’s Ready Reckoner is something to behold.