AFLW 2026 - Simulations Before Round 1

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This year’s pre Round 1 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

Also, note that these are pre-season estimates and are therefore likely to have large standard errors associated with them. I expect them to change significantly over the next few weeks.

  1. North Melbourne: about 98% chances of being finalists; around 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 55% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Brisbane and Melbourne: 80-85% chances of being finalists; around 50-55% chances of Top 4; roughly 10-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Adelaide, Geelong, and Carlton: 60-65% chances of being finalists; around 25-35% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Port Adelaide, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, and Sydney: around 40-55% chance of being finalists; 15-25% chances of Top 4; 2% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. West Coast, Essendon, Collingwood, Hawthorn, St Kilda, and Richmond: around 20-35% chance of being finalists; around 5-10% chances of Top 4; roughly <0.5-1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS and Gold Coast: around 5-10% chance of being finalists; around 1-2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have 11 teams with a 1-in-3 or better chance of finishing Top 8, and eight with about or better than a 1-in-5 chance of finishing Top 4.

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • North Melbourne (about $2.40)

  • Brisbane (about $5.75)

  • Melbourne (about $9.50)

  • Adelaide (about $12.15)

  • Carlton (about $19)

  • Port Adelaide (about $30.50)

  • Geelong (about $38.10)

  • Fremantle (about $39)

  • Sydney (about $42.50)

  • Western Bulldogs (about $51)