AFLW 2026 - Simulations After Round 2

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This year’s post Round 2 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 99% chances of Top 4; roughly 85% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Brisbane: roughly 97% chances of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Melbourne and Carlton: roughly 50-60% chances of being finalists; around 50-60% chances of Top 4; roughly 3-5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Geelong and Sydney: roughly 75% chances of being finalists; around 25-35% chances of Top 4; roughly <0.5-1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Western Bulldogs, Port Adelaide and Hawthorn: around 50-60% chance of being finalists; 10-20% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Fremantle and Richmond: around 30-35% chance of being finalists; around 5% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Adelaide, Gold Coast, and GWS: around 10-20% chance of being finalists; around 1-2% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Essendon, Collingwood, West Coast, and St Kilda: around 1-4% chance of being finalists; <0.5%% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have 10 teams with about or better than a 7-in-20 chance of finishing Top 8, and seven with about or better than a 1-in-5 chance of finishing Top 4.

WINS AND LADDER FINISHES

In the table below we look at the average ladder finish for each team for a given number of home and away wins.

We see that:

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 8th for most teams for 7 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 4th for most teams for for 9 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 2nd for most teams for 10.5 wins

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • North Melbourne (about $1.70)

  • Brisbane (about $5.10)

  • Melbourne (about $14)

  • Carlton (about $15)

  • Sydney (about $60)

  • Geelong (about $65)

  • Hawthorn (about $110)

  • Western Bulldogs (about $115)

  • Adelaide (about $180)

  • Port Adelaide (about $200)

  • Fremantle (about $475)

  • Richmond (about $500)

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

The following plot shows how likely it is that any two consecutive ladder positions will be decided based on percentages.

So, our current estimates are in some cases higher compared to last week’s, and in other cases they are zero:

  • MINOR PREMIER: There’s about a 1-in-6 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (down to 17% from 21%)

  • DOUBLE CHANCE: There’s still about a 3-in-7 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (up to 43% from 42%)

  • MAKE FINALS: There’s still about a 1-in-2 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (steady at 50%)