AFLW 2026 - Round 2
/We’ve a much more compact round this week with games spanning only Saturday and Sunday.
WoSHBODS is forecasting seven home team wins and two away wins, with only one of those wins by an underdog, albeit by an underdog that flipped to favouritism before I could place a wager.
The distribution of WoSHBODS expected margins is as follows:
Under 2 goals: 5 games
From 2 to under 4 goals: 2 games
Over 4 goals: 2 games
WAGERS
The table at right documents another week of wall-to-wall shenanigans and shows what I’ve eventually secured versus what I wanted.
As you can see, Investors have a head-to-head interest in every game, and a line market interest in seven of the nine games, with the head-to-head bets on eight (now seven) underdogs and just one (now two favourites). The line bets are on four teams receiving start, one giving start, and one giving start in some bets and receiving it in others.
The head-to-head bets total just over 14% of the original Head-to-Head Fund, and the line bets just under 14% of the Line Fund.
In total, then, about 12.5% of the entire Combined Portfolio is at risk.
That’s what you get when you allow wagers of any size whenever the estimated edge is positive. Thank goodness we’re using 1/10th Kelly.
READY RECKONER
This week’s Ready Reckoner is another things of abstract beauty.
