AFLW 2026 - Simulations After Round 1

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This year’s post Round 1 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 65-70% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Brisbane: roughly 97% chances of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 20% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Melbourne, Port Adelaide, and Carlton: 75-85% chances of being finalists; around 35-50% chances of Top 4; roughly 2-4% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Sydney and Western Bulldogs: around 55-65% chance of being finalists; 20-25% chances of Top 4; roughly 1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Richmond, Adelaide, Geelong, and Fremantle: around 30-45% chance of being finalists; around 5-10% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. GWS, Hawthorn, and West Coast: around 20% chance of being finalists; around 3-4% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. St Kilda, Collingwood, Essendon, and Gold Coast: around 5-10% chance of being finalists; <0.5%-1% chances of Top 4; <0.5% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have 10 teams with about or better than a 2-in-5 chance of finishing Top 8, and seven with about or better than a 1-in-5 chance of finishing Top 4.

WINS AND LADDER FINISHES

In the table below we look at the average ladder finish for each team for a given number of home and away wins.

We see that:

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 8th for most teams for 7 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 4th for most teams for for 9 wins

  • The average ladder finish first drops below 2nd for most teams for for 10.5 wins

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • North Melbourne (about $1.85)

  • Brisbane (about $4)

  • Melbourne (about $16.50)

  • Geelong (about $21)

  • Adelaide (about $32)

  • Western Bulldogs (about $55)

  • Carlton (about $55)

  • Port Adelaide (about $110)

  • Fremantle (about $300)

  • Sydney (about $400)

  • Collingwood (about $450)

  • West Coast (about $500)

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

The following plot shows how likely it is that any two consecutive ladder positions will be decided based on percentages.

So, our current estimates are in some cases higher compared to last week’s, and in other cases they are zero:

  • MINOR PREMIER: There’s about a 1-in-5 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages

  • DOUBLE CHANCE: There’s about a 3-in-7 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages

  • MAKE FINALS: There’s about a 1-in-2 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages