2017 - Round 5 : Relative Calm
/Monday football makes for busy weeks at the MoS Factory and seemingly no gap between one round and the next.
Read MoreMonday football makes for busy weeks at the MoS Factory and seemingly no gap between one round and the next.
Read MoreIt's instructive this week to see how MoSHBODS and MoSSBODS have treated the results for Adelaide and GWS.
Read MoreAs regular readers of this blog will know, one of the aspects of the 2017 season that I was particularlylooking forward to was the battle between MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS, and between both of them and the other MoS forecasters, especially those based on the TAB Bookmaker's opinions.
Read MoreChiPS has had a rethink about the Carlton v Gold Coast, and Hawthorn v Geelong games (now that I've told it about the result of last week's Gold Coast v Hawthorn game ...)
Read MoreI'm currently facing a set of mutually incompatible objectives in my over/under wagering and its chronicling here on the blog.
Read MoreChiPS has continued its run of contrarian forecasts this week.
Read MoreAdelaide continues to impress MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS, and remains as the number 1 team for both, variously considered as a +7.4 Scoring Shot better-than-average team by MoSSBODS and a +27.1 point better-than-average team by MoSHBODS when playing at a neutral venue against an average team.
Read MoreIt's almost always a tough round for the rational Head-to-Head Tipsters when Home Sweet Home (HSH) records the best performance of all of them. Only MoSSBODS_Marg managed to do almost as well as HSH's 6 from 9, it's 5 from 9 moving it to 16 from 27 (59%) for the season and dragging it into a five-way tie for second behind ENS_Linear's 17 from 27 (63%).
Read MoreThe bookmakers have as many as five games producing over 200 points this week, the Saints v Lions game foremost among them where both the TAB and Centrebet have set the total at 206.5.
Read MoreWe're back to Round 1 levels of disagreement this week, much of this fuelled by Consult The Ladder and Home Sweet Home amongst the Head-to-Head Tipsters, and by C_Marg and C_Prob elsewhere.
Read MoreAdelaide have retained number 1 ranking on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS after their 24-point and 9- Scoring Shot victory over Hawthorn.
Read MoreAfter last weekend's inauspicious start, it's a relief to report that all three forecaster families performed far better this week.
Read MoreIt usually takes a few weeks of a new season to iron out the main bugs in updated and new scripts (and why, exactly, are bugs always 'ironed'?) and to get into the swing of knowing what data goes where. This season has been no exception.
Read MoreIf you pootle around the MoS website - and, by pootle, I mean search - you'll find a number of posts using the terms 'overround' and 'vig' (or 'vigorish'). Today I want to provide a quick refresher on what those terms mean and why they should be important to you if you ever think about placing wagers of your own.
Read MoreThis week, the TAB's over/under markets went up well before Centrebet's, and Centrebet released theirs over an extended period, which means that the data in the table below spans an atypically long timespan since each market has been recorded as close to its opening as I was able.
Read MoreIt's hard to find a dissenting voice this week amongst the MoS Head-to-Head Tipsters, with even Home Sweet Home tipping against the favourites in only three games.
Read MoreWe noted last year that Adelaide, as far as the MoS Team Rating Systems were concerned, were very unlucky not to progress further in the competition. Their big win over GWS this weekend only served to reinforce that view.
Read MoreFrom an accuracy point-of-view, the first round of 2017 was a poor one for the MoS Head-to-Head Tipsters, though that's probably to be expected when only four favourites and an equal-favourite prevail.
Read MoreWe'll need to review our approach to the over/under market this season, I think, since, if this week is a guide, opening markets will be less generously priced.
Read MoreI'm flipping the order of the sections in the weekly Wagers & Tips blog this year, providing the tips and predictions before the wagers. I think that everyone who comes here is interested in the tips, but only a subset are interested in the wagers as well. And, populism is all the rage right now ...
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