2017 - Round 4 : ChiPS Doubles Down

ChiPS has continued its run of contrarian forecasts this week.

In its Head-to-Head Tipster guise, it's opted for four upset wins, the equal-highest number of any Tipster (the other being, of course, Home Sweet Home). Amongst the other Tipsters, only Consult The Ladder (2), ENS_Linear (2), MoSSBODS_Marg (2), and MoSHBODS_Marg (1) have also found reason to tip against Bookie Knows Best in any of the games.

One-third of the underdog tips have come in the Carlton v Gold Coast game where the aggregate has finished 5-4 to the underdog Blues. Four more have come for the Saints who face the Pies. Both the Blues and the Saints, however, are priced close to $2 in the head-to-head markets and so are barely underdogs.

Such disagreement as there is has seen the all-Tipster Disagreement Index coming in at just 26%, its second-lowest value for the season, behind only the 14% of Round 2.

C_Marg, for the third consecutive round, has produced the largest mean absolute deviation (MAD) amongst the Margin Predictors, its 12.6 points per game figure a full 6 points per game higher than the next-highest, which is MoSSBODS_Marg. Elevating C_Marg's MAD most of all are its predictions of a 10-point upset Roos victory, a 17-point Blues victory, a 69-point Crows victory, a 30-point Tigers victory, and a 2-point upset Hawks victory.

C_Marg is on the extreme end of margin predictions in seven games, Bookie_9 in four, Bookie_3 in three, MoSSBODS_Marg in two, MoSHBODS_Marg in one, and RSMP_Simple also in one.

The all-Predictor average MAD of 5.2 points per game per Predictor is the second-lowest for the season, behind the 4.5 points per game per Predictor in Round 2.

Partly because of C_Marg's prediction of such a large win by the Crows, the Adelaide v Essendon game has come in with the highest MAD for the round at 11 points per Predictor, ahead of the Roos v Dogs game (7.3 points), and the Dees v Dockers game (6.3 points).

C_Prob also stands out amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors with a MAD of over 10% points per game. The next-highest Predictor's MAD is MoSSBODS_Prob's at just 4.9% points per game.

C_Prob aside, we could see some significant moves on the Leaderboard mainly on the basis of the results in the:

  • Roos v Dogs game (good for MoSHBODS if the Roos win)
  • Dees v Dockers game (good for MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS if the Dees win)
  • Giants v Power game (good for MoSSBODS if the Power win, good for MoSHBODS if the Giants win)
  • Blues v Suns game (good for MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS if the Blues win)
  • Crows v Bombers game (good for MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS if the Crows win)

The all-Predictor average MAD this week is 5.3% points per game per Predictor. As we saw for the other two all-forecaster metrics, this value is the second-highest for the season, behind only the result in Round 2 (4.5% points per game per Predictor).


It's another active round of wagering, but with fewer bets and less money at stake across the nine games than we had last week.

Altogether, that's six head-to-head and four line bets totalling just under 10% of the original Overall Portfolio. And, we've still managed to leave three games wager-free.

Most important to Investor fortune this week is the result in the Adelaide v Essendon game where the difference between a comfortable Adelaide win and an Adelaide loss will translate into more than a 7% point difference in the value of the Portfolio.

Only two other games have a range of outcomes that span more than a couple of percentage points: the Melbourne v Fremantle game (4.5% points), and the Carlton v Gold Coast game (2.8% points). 

The profile of outcomes in the GWS v Port Adelaide game is an interesting one this week. It shows the maximum profit being achieved if the Giants win by anywhere between 1 and 22 points, but by no more or no less. That bounded optimum comes about because MoSHBODS rates the Giants as 82% chances, making the $1.30 head-to-head price on offer for them just attractive enough to induce a wager, while MoSSBODS is slightly less enamoured of the Giants' chances and thinks they'll win by only 13 points, making the 22.5 points start for the Power in the line market sufficient for a wager there too.

(By playing around with a number of scenarios where MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS wind up recommending wagers on different teams, such as is the case this week in the GWS v Port Adelaide game, I think I've convinced myself that it's impossible for them to place a combination of bets that renders a profit unattainable regardless of the outcome. Put another way, I think there will always been some range of outcomes that will see both the MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS wagers as winners, even in the unusual case where they wind up betting with different bookmakers and so obtain a head-to-head price of over $2 but also give start in the line market.)

Combined, the 10 wagers have the ability to slice almost 10c off the Overall Portfolio price or to add almost 8c to it.