2017 - Team Ratings After Round 3

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Adelaide continues to impress MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS, and remains as the number 1 team for both, variously considered as a +7.4 Scoring Shot better-than-average team by MoSSBODS and a +27.1 point better-than-average team by MoSHBODS when playing at a neutral venue against an average team.

That said, the Crows' Combined Rating fell a little on the basis of the weekend's result, as their 17-point and 2 Scoring Shot defeat of Port Adelaide was assessed as being slightly less decisive than it should have been. Rating Systems, like the teachers and professors that demanded the most of you, can be very hard markers ...

More broadly, the weekend's results have left MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS agreeing about the Top 4 teams, and disagreeing most of all about:

  • Collingwood, ranked 5th by MoSSBODS and 8th by MoSHBODS
  • Geelong, ranked 9th by MoSSBODS and 5th by MoSHBODS

For no other team do MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS disagree by more than a single ladder position about their most appropriate overall ranking.

Next, let's look at the Offensive and Defensive ratings and rankings of the two Systems.

Here, we find that:

  • Adelaide remains ranked 1st on offence by MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS
  • The Western Bulldogs remain ranked 1st on defence by MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS
  • Collingwood, Melbourne, and St Kilda rose most on offensive rankings for MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS
  • Hawthorn fell most on offensive rankings for MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS, dropping a startling seven palces on MoSSBODS from 4th to 11th.
  • Carlton rose most on defensive rankings for MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS, up five places on each
  • Geelong and Hawthorn fell most on defensive rankings for MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS

MoSSBODS now rates 12 team as better than average on offence, and nine teams as better than average on defence. MoSHBODS rates only 11 team as better than average on offence, and eight teams as better than average on defence.

On MoSSBODS, the difference between the best and worst teams offensively is 8.8 Scoring Shots, and between the best and worst teams defensively is 8.5 Scoring Shots. On MoSHBODS, the difference between the best and worst teams offensively is 33.7 points, and between the best and worst teams defensively is 33.2 points.

After last weekend's results, I'll admit that I'm feeling a little more predisposed to take notice of MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS.

ChiPS and MARS

ChiPS, clearly, has been struggling for form a bit this season, perhaps a victim of some over-zealous optimisation in the off-season by someone who's name is best left unstated. That said, its errors are probably more in its estimates of home ground advantage than in its estimates of underlying team abilities, which this week see it also ranking the Crows as the best team, and the Giants as second-best.

MARS agrees with that assessment, though it and ChiPS now disagree most about:

  • Port Adelaide, which ChiPS ranks 3rd and MARS ranks 7th
  • Geelong, which ChiPS ranks 6th and MARS ranks 3rd
  • Gold Coast, which ChiPS ranks 17th and MARS ranks 14th

For no other team is ChiPS' and MARS' ranking different by more than two places.

ChiPS now rates 12 teams as better than average, while MARS does the same for only eight teams, it excluding Richmond, Collingwood, Melbourne, and the Kangaroos from ChiPS' list.