2017 - Round 3 : Over/Under Update

The bookmakers have as many as five games producing over 200 points this week, the Saints v Lions game foremost among them where both the TAB and Centrebet have set the total at 206.5.

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS concur that this game is most likely to be the highest-scoring game of the round, and that it will probably produce an aggregate score in excess of 200. Neither of them, however, foresees 200 being broken in any other game, which has left their all-game average totals about 8 points below those of the two bookmakers.

The biggest difference of opinion comes in the Geelong v Melbourne clash, where MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS expect the total to be around 175 points, while the two bookmakers expect the total to be about 4 goals higher. There's also about a 2 to 3 goal difference in the Fremantle v Western Bulldogs game, which sees MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS predicting totals of around 170 points to the bookmakers' 185 points.

MoSSBODS, in fact, has forecast lower totals than the TAB and Centrebet in every game, and in four of those games the overlay is sufficiently large to warrant wagers.

MoSSBODS' lower expected totals are almost entirely the result of its lower expected scores for Away teams. Compared to the TAB, it expects about 8.5 fewer points per Away team per game, and compared to Centrebet about 7.8 fewer points per Away team per game.

Over the first two weeks of the season, MoSSBODS has done fairly well relative to the bookmakers, though moreso in Round 2 than in Round 1.

If we look at the Absolute Errors portion of the table above we see that MoSSBODS recorded the smallest mean absolute error (MAE) for Away team scores in Round 1, and the smallest MAE for Home team scores and final game margins in Round 2.

Averaged across the two rounds, however, it's the TAB that's done best on Totals, and Centrebet on Margins, Home team scores, and Away team scores.