2017 - Round 5 : Relative Calm

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Monday football makes for busy weeks at the MoS Factory and seemingly no gap between one round and the next. 

Anyway, the head-to-head and line markets are up and here we are with Round 5 just three days away, so it's time to lock in the weekend's forecasts.

Only five of the Head-to-Head Tipsters have opted for even a single underdog this week, the two RSMP's tipping the Swans to produce the upset against the Giants, Consult The Ladder and C_Marg tipping the Dons to do the same against the Pies, and Home Sweet Home tipping both those upsets plus three more in the form of Gold Coast, St Kilda, and Hawthorn.

That level of broad agreement has made for a small overall Disagreement Index - it's at 19%, the second-lowest it's been this season, and would probably have been at a record low but for Home Sweet Home's Index of 50%.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, C_Marg, for only the second time this season, does not have the week's highest mean absolute deviation (MAD). Its 5.0 points per game MAD is, in fact, only 4th-highest, behind, in order, MoSSBODS_Marg (6.7), Bookie_9 (5.2), and MoSHBODS_Marg (5.1).

The week's most extreme tips are spread across seven different Predictors this week, which is far more dispersed than we're used to seeing. As such, it's not entirely surprising that the all-Predictor MAD of only 4 points per game per Predictor this week is a season record, lowering the mark of 4.5 set in Round 2.

Across the nine games, only the Sydney v GWS (5.8 point per Predictor), Western Bulldogs v Brisbane Lions (5.5), and Gold Coast v Adelaide (5.4) games have elicited MADs of greater than 5 points per Predictor.

There are record levels of agreement too amongst the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, the all-Predictor MAD of 3.3% points per Predictor per game lowering the previous record of 4.6% set only last week.

MoSSBODS_Prob has the week's highest MAD (5.5% points per game), ahead of C_Prob (4.2%), and MoSHBODS_Prob (4.0%). MoSSBODS_Prob has also produced the most extreme forecast in seven of the nine games.

Probability estimates vary most for the Essendon v Collingwood game where the MAD has come in at 5.9% points per Predictor.

The table below provides the round-by-round and overall average disagreement values for every forecaster, and gives a good overall perspective on how Round 5 sits within the season.

At some point I plan to perform an analysis looking at the relationship between levels of disagreement and forecasting accuracy at the individual forecaster and forecaster-grouped-by-type levels.

WAGERS

The relatively high levels of agreement have made for relatively low levels of wagering this week, MoSHBODS suggesting only five head-to-head wagers totalling just over 10% of the original Fund, and MoSSBODS suggesting only five line wagers totalling just under 8% of the original Fund. That's the lowest single round aggregate wagering we've seen in the head-to-head market, and the second-lowest in the line market.

Together, these 10 bets put about 5% of the original Overall Portfolio at risk, almost 60% of which is in the hands of the Dogs and the Pies.

The Dogs could knock 1.8c off the value of the Overall Portfolio should they fail to cover their roughly 7-goal spread in taking on the Lions, while the Pies could snip 1c off the value simply by losing to Essendon. Adelaide, the Kangaroos, and St Kilda control most of the remaining risk.

In terms of upside, about three-quarters of it is in the hands of the Dogs, Roos, and Pies - a disconcerting situation when you think about it, because none of those animals have hands.

Anyway, a set of best-case results would add just over 4c to the Overall Portfolio price, and a set of worst-case results would knock just under 5c off that price.

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS TEAM SCORING FORECASTS

Last week I reflected on the conundrum posed by the recalcitrance of Centebet in posting totals markets. On the assumption that Centrebet will continue to post these markets only on the day of the game, from this week onwards I plan to:

  • Post MoSSBODS' team and total scoring opinions as part of this, first blog of the week. (I'll provide MoSHBODS' too, though these aren't used for wagering)
  • Post one, or maybe two, Over/Under market updates sometime later in the week providing information about the totals markets posted by the TAB and Centrebet, and about any wagers made on those markets on the basis of MoSSBODS' opinions. I'll also include a review of previous round performances in the first of those blogs.

Note, however, that I will only be making wagers once both the TAB and Centrebet markets have been opened so, in some cases, I'll be posting about them here post hoc. You will, however, know MoSSBODS' views in advance, and hence will have the basis on which I'll be making wagers should appropriately attractive totals be set.

So, here are MoSSBODS' and MoSHBODS' opinions on scoring for this week.

I'll refrain from any comment or analysis here, reserving that possibility for later in the week when I post the first Over/Under market update.