2017 - Team Ratings After Round 4

It's instructive this week to see how MoSHBODS and MoSSBODS have treated the results for Adelaide and GWS.

Whilst both, on balance, felt that the Crows underperformed in their victory over the Dons, MoSSBODS felt that a mere 10 Scoring Shot victory merited a relatively significant deduction while MoSHBODS felt that a smaller deduction was in order. 

GWS' performance, on the other hand, was treated even more differently by the two Systems, MoSSBODS deeming their 6 Scoring Shot victory worthy of a small increment in Combined Rating, while MoSHBODS felt the win insufficiently impressive and thus deserving of a smallish reduction in Combined Rating.

Those changes flipped the ordering of the Crows and the Giants for MoSSBODS, who now ranks the Giants in 1st ahead of the Crows, but have left MoSHBODS still ranking the Crows in 1st ahead of the Giants. On both Systems, however, these two teams are rated considerably higher than all other teams in the competition.

Further down the table we find just three teams ranked more than a single place differently by the two Systems:

  • The Western Bulldogs, ranked 3rd by MoSSBODS and 5th by MoSHBODS
  • Collingwood, ranked 8th by MoSSBODS and 10th by MoSHBODS
  • Sydney, ranked 10th by MoSSBODS and 7th by MoSHBODS

Looking next at the MoS brothers' component ratings, we find that GWS is now ranked 1st on offence and on defence by MoSSBODS, while MoSHBODS ranks Adelaide 1st on offence and the Western Bulldogs 1st on defence.

There are now just two teams ranked more than one place differently by MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS on offence:

  • West Coast, ranked 7th by MoSSBODS and 5th by MoSHBODS
  • Hawthorn, ranked 12th by MoSSBODS and 14th by MoSHBODS

On defence there's a slightly higher level of disagreement between the two Systems about team rankings, with six being ranked two places or more differently: 

  • Adelaide, ranked 3rd by MoSSBODS and 5th by MoSHBODS
  • Geelong, ranked 6th by MoSSBODS and 3rd by MoSHBODS
  • The Kangaroos, ranked 16th by MoSSBODS and 13th by MoSHBODS
  • Gold Coast, ranked 14th by MoSSBODS and 16th by MoSHBODS
  • Carlton, ranked 8th by MoSSBODS and 10th by MoSHBODS
  • Fremantle, ranked 13th by MoSSBODS and 15th by MoSHBODS

MoSSBODS currently rates 11 teams as above-average offensively and 10 as above-average defensively. MoSHBODS also rates 11 teams as above-average offensively, but just nine as above-average defensively.

ChiPS and MARS

Regular MoS readers will know that I inadvertently misled ChiPS last week by failing to advise it of the result in the Gold Coast v Hawthorn game. One consequence of this was that ChiPS, once informed, ranked the Hawks as only 12th, which left it much less surprised by this week's result in their game against the Cats.

That said, the Hawks' thumping was still enough for ChiPS to demote them another four places, leaving them ahead now only of Carlton and the Brisbane Lions.

MARS also slipped the Hawks down multiple places, from 8th to 13th.

Higher up the table we still find ChiPS and MARS rating the Crows as the top team, ahead of GWS in ChiPS' case, and Geelong in MARS'.

Across the entire suite of teams there are relatively high levels of disagreement this week between ChiPS and MARS, eight teams now being ranked two places or more differently by these two systems:

  • Port Adelaide, ranked 4th on ChiPS and 7th on MARS
  • Richmond, ranked 6th on ChiPS and 8th on MARS
  • Sydney, ranked 8th on ChiPS and 5th on MARS
  • Collingwood, ranked 9th on ChiPS and 11th on MARS
  • Melbourne, ranked 11th on ChiPS and 9th on MARS
  • Fremantle, ranked 13th on ChiPS and 15th on MARS
  • Essendon, ranked 15th on ChiPS and 17th on MARS
  • Hawthorn, ranked 16th on ChiPS and 13th on MARS

Despite all that disagreement, however, ChiPS and MARS rate the same nine teams as the only teams that are currently better than an average team.

Looking across all of the MoS Team Rating Systems, four teams seem to be causing the most dispute in that their minimum and maximum rankings differ by more than three places:

  • The Western Bulldogs, ranked 3rd on MoSSBODS and 7th on ChiPS
  • Sydney, ranked 5th on MARS and 10th on MoSSBODS
  • St Kilda, ranked 7th on MoSSBODS and 12th on MARS and ChiPS
  • Hawthorn, ranked 13th on MARS and 17th on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS

Who's right? Who knows, but if forced to make a choice I'd probably go with MoSSBODS.