It usually takes a few weeks of a new season to iron out the main bugs in updated and new scripts (and why, exactly, are bugs always 'ironed'?) and to get into the swing of knowing what data goes where. This season has been no exception.
Today, while I was running another analysis, I spotted an error in the data input for last week. Essentially, the Gold Coast v Brisbane, and the Essendon v Hawthorn results were flipped in the inputs to MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS.
Fortunately, the changes are small but, since the relevant games have not been played, I've decided to provide the updated forecasts, which appear below.
First, tips, margin predictions and head-to-head probability estimates.
The major changes here for MoSHBODS and MoSSBODS are that:
- Adelaide's expected victory margin shrinks by a point or two (and Hawthorn's victory probability rises, according to MoSSBODS)
- GWS's expected victory margin shrinks by a point or two (and its victory probability shrinks a little, too)
Next, team and total scoring.
In terms of game totals, we see:
- An increase in the expected total score for the Hawthorn v Adelaide game
- An decrease in the expected total score for the GWS v Gold Coast game
At the team level, the changes are mostly only of a point or two, the exception being GWS, who MoSSBODS now sees as scoring 111 points rather than 116 points.
For completeness, here's the updated comparison of MoSSBODS with the bookmakers (showing the over/under bets as already made).
The major implications for wagering are that:
- We'd prefer to be a little less exposed to Adelaide in the head-to-head and line markets
- We'd have snapped up the over 195.5 in the Hawks v Adelaide game at the TAB were it still available. The total for that game is now 199.5, which is both heartening and disappointing in about equal measures.