2017 - Round 2 Results - That's Much Better

After last weekend's inauspicious start, it's a relief to report that all three forecaster families performed far better this week.

(In case you missed the update, please note that these results reflect the corrected forecasts for the Friday through Sunday games as flagged in this post on Friday afternoon.)

All but two of the Head-to-Head Tipsters bagged 8 from 9 this week, which left the all-Tipster average at 7.8 and sees ENS_Linear remain atop the bunch, now on 13 from 18 (72%). Home Sweet Home and C_Marg were the only Tipsters to score less than 8.

C_Marg also struggled as a margin predictor, its mean absolute error (MAE) of 32 points per game comfortably the worst of all the Predictors and leaving it 90 points adrift of Bookie_Hcap, which is the current leader after two rounds.

Very pleasingly, best MAE for the week belonged to MoSSBODS_Marg (24.1), this result leaving it now less than 3 points behind Bookie_Hcap. Encouragingly too, MoSHBODS_Marg (25.6) returned the second-best MAE for the round, but its inaccurate forecasting in Round 1 has left it just over 6 goals behind Bookie_Hcap. There is though, as any footy coach would tell you, still a long way to go in the season.

In other news, the all-Predictor average MAE for the round was 28 points per game per Predictor, which is good, and only two Predictors now have profitable, season-long line market records: MoSSBODS_Marg and Bookie_9.

It was also a very good round for the six Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, though most definitively for the three bookmaker-based Predictors, which still fill the top three spots on the ladder, Bookie-RE pre-eminent amongst them. The three other Predictors, including C_Prob, all recorded positive probability scores as well this week, which has left all three with positive averages for the season too.


There are two pieces of good news for Investors this week: firstly that the Portfolio returned a profit this week, and secondly that the results from Round 1 were misstated in such a way that the loss was magnified.

The reason for the Round 1 error is simple: I applied last season's 40% weighting to the Head-to-Head Fund's result rather than this season's 20% weighting. You'll have to forgive me for being so obviously inept with numbers ...

Anyway, this week's results saw the Head-to-Head Fund land just 2 from 5 results - though all of the losing wagers on the Lions, Roos and Blues looked reasonable until fairly late in all three games - to finish just on the wrong side of break even. The Over/Under Fund also made a small loss, choosing correctly on 2 from 4 occasions to shed 0.5c.

The Line Fund, however, was right 4 times in 6 attempts, climbing 4.8c and propelling the Overall Portfolio to a 1.7c increase. That leaves the Portfolio now down by just 1.8c after last week's restated loss of 3.5c.

I reiterate though, there's a long way to go - for better, or for worse.