2017 - Round 1 Results - Some Calibration Required

From an accuracy point-of-view, the first round of 2017 was a poor one for the MoS Head-to-Head Tipsters, though that's probably to be expected when only four favourites and an equal-favourite prevail.

Best was the rebuilt ENS_Linear Tipster, which bagged five from nine, making it the only Tipster to end the round above 50%. BKB, who got Consult The Ladder's incorrect tip in the Saints v Dees game where there were equal-favourites, scored just four, as did Consult The Ladder, and the two RSMP Tipsters.

(Note that I provided the wrong predictions for Consult The Ladder - I wound up basing its predictions on what it came up with for Round 1 of last year. There's always one error like this in the early rounds. Anyway, the score of four is what it should have received.)

Amongst the remaining Tipsters, MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg managed only three correct tips each, and Home Sweet Home and C_Marg managed only two. The all-Tipster average was 3.4 from 9.

The TAB Bookmaker line market handicaps, which as listed as Bookie_Hcap, proved closest amongst the MoS Margin Predictors, the mean absolute error (MAE) of these forecasts coming in at 31.8 points per game. Bookie_3 and Bookie_LPSO were next-best, less than a goal further back, while ENS_Linear grabbed fourth, just 14 points adrift of Bookie_Hcap.

Worst was MoSHBODS_Marg's 38.1 points per game, which left it almost 10 goals behind Bookie_Hcap. In three games it was further from the final margin than all other Predictors (hence the 3 alongside its name in the column with the sand bunker at its top). Bookie_3 had the highest number of tips "nearest the pin" (3).

The all-Tipster average MAE was 34.2 points per game.

Only four Predictors tipped more than half of the line market results, Bookie_LPSO, ENS_Linear, Bookie_9, and RSMP_Simple all snagging 5 from 9.

It was an especially tough week for probability estimation, with none of the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors returning a positive log probability score for the round. Bookie-OE did best, slightly ahead of Bookie-RE and Bookie-LPSO. MoSHBODS_Prob recorded the round's worst probability score.

Hopefully, the relatively large rating adjustment factors used by ChiPS, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS in the early parts of the season will help improve their performances in Round 2.


Whilst the Overall Portfolio finished down almost 7c at the end of the round, for much of it I feared that loss would be considerably larger. Adelaide's and Geelong's victories in the last two games of the round were the major results that helped drag the Portfolio back closer to break-even.

It was the Head-to-Head Fund that caused most of the damage, its 2 from 8 performance seeing that Fund shed over 12c. Based, as it is, on MoSHBODS' opinions, that loss is not surprising.

The Line Fund also shed value, though only about half as much after a 3 from 6 performance.

Encouragingly, the Under/Over Fund started the season off well, landing both of its wagers to rise by 3.5c.

In total, the Overall Portfolio fell by 6.7c after collecting on just 7 of its 16 bets.

Last year, the Portfolio was up by 4.8c at the same point . Different year, different trajectory - hopefully same or better outcome.