MoSSBODS left its Top 7 teams unchanged this week, while MoSHBODS fiddled a bit but moved no team by more than a single spot.
At the end of it all, MoSSBODS’ Top 3 is Western Bulldogs, Collingwood, and then Geelong, while MoSHBODS’ is Western Bulldogs, Geelong, and then Collingwood.
Read MoreSIx of the seven early-week favourites got up this weekend, and, with only mild contrarianism, registered scores were mostly around that number, the big exception being Home Sweet Home who scored only two.
MoSHPlay_Marg registered only five, however, which allowed Bookie Knows Best to close its lead to just two tips on the Head-to-Head Predictor Leaderboard. ENS_Linear sits in 3rd, two tips further back.
MoSHPlay_Marg now sits on 89.5 from 120 (75%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 5 from 7, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 80.7 from 120 (67%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay’s got around to looking at the new lists for the Sunday game and has made a few adjustments, pending the final teams.
MoSHPlay has ended at Lions by 21 points.
MoSHPlay’s sticking with Dogs by 33 points tonight and now has preliminary views on the remaining games in the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tomorrow’s game is Dogs by 33 points.
The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is 2.5 points per game, with the difference in one game just under 6 points and in two more over 3 points. Their all-game averages differ by only a point, however, and are 1 or 2 points higher than the bookmakers’.
Read MoreOnly seven games this week, all of them expected to be won by about 5 goals or less, and three of them by 3 goals or less.
Read MoreBoth Systems lowered the Ratings of the Top 3 teams this week, but they remain, in order and for both, the Dogs, Pies, and Cats.
In total, MoSSBODS moved only five teams this week and MoSHBODS only three, with Carlton (up 2 to 7th) and Adelaide (down 3 to 9th) the only multi-spot movers on MoSSBODS. No team moved by more than a single spot on MoSHBODS.
Read MoreSIx of the eight early-week favourites got up this weekend, and, with minimal contrarianism once again, registered scores were mostly that number with the exceptions being Home Sweet Home and Consult the Ladder who both scored only four.
That left MoSHPlay still three tips clear of the field and now on 84.5 from 113 (75%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 5.6 from 8, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 75.7 from 113 (67%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tomorrow’s game is Pies by 24 points.
MoSHPlay finishes at Cats by 18 points.
MoSHPlay now has some preliminary views about the Friday, Saturday, and Sunday games.
MoSHPlay finishes at Dogs by 27 points.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary view of tonight’s game is Dogs by 26 points.
The average absolute difference between the MoS twins’ Total forecasts this week is just under 3 points per game, with differences in two games as high as 5 points. Their all-game averages differ by only a point, however, and are, unusually, 5 or 6 points higher than the bookmakers’.
At least part of the reason for that difference is the rain that is expected to affect a number of games.
Read MoreThis week we have eight-ninths of a full round and it comprises six games that are expected to be won by the home team and by less than three goals, and two games that are expected to be won by the away team and by less than four goals.
Let’s see what the models make of the eight games.
Read MoreBoth Systems moved only three teams by multiple spots this week, and both left the Top 3 untouched, meaning that there’s still unanimity that they are, in order, the Dogs, Pies, and Cats. On both Systems, the Pies and the Cats drew a little nearer to the Dogs, although the gap between the Pies and the Dogs on MoSHBODS is far smaller than on MoSSBODS.
The big movers on MoSSBODS were Adelaide (up 4 into 6th), Sydney (down 3 into 11th), and Carlton (down 2 into 9th). On MoSHBODS they were Adelaide (up 4 into 4th), Fremantle (up 2 into 8th), and Hawthorn (down 2 into 7th),
Read MoreFive of the seven early-week favourites got up this week, and, with minimal contrarianism, this was the score registered by all but Home Sweet Home (three) and MoSSBODS_Marg (four).
That left MoSHPlay still three tips clear of the field and now on 78.5 from 105 (75%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 4.7 from 7, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 70.2 from 105 (67%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay is sticking with Lions by 37 points as its final forecast and also now has preliminary thought about the remaining games in the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary thought about tomorrow’s game is Lions by 37 points.
The MoS twins, as is becoming the norm, have a few sizeable differences of opinion this week, with five of the seven games seeing them separated by 2 points or more in their Total forecasts, and in three of those by 4 points or more. Overall, the difference in their average Total is 2 points per game and their differences to the bookmakers’ overall averages range from 3 to 5 points per game.
Read MoreThis week we return to truncated rounds, and the seven games this week include four that are expected to be settled by less than three goals, and three that are expected to be settled by six goals or more.
Let’s see what the models make of that.
Read MoreBoth Systems moved only two teams by multiple spots this week, and both left the Top 3 untouched, meaning that there’s still unanimity that the medals currently belong to, in order, the Dogs, Pies, and Cats.
Interestingly, such was the difference in conversion rates in the Cats v Dogs game (Geelong 74% to Western Bulldogs 48%) that, when coupled with the very large Geelong venue advantage, both Systems saw fit to lift the Dogs’ underlying rating and drop the Cats’ even though the Cats ran out 127 to 113 winners.
Read MoreYet another six of the early-week favourites got up this week, and this was the score registered by all but ENS_Linear and Consult The Ladder (seven each), and Home Sweet Home and MoSSBODS_Marg (five each).
That left MoSHPlay still three tips clear of the field and now on 73.5 from 98 (75%).
The all-Tipster score came in at 6 from 9, which took the season-long all-Tipster performance to 65.5 from 98 (67%).
Read MoreMoSHPlay has some updated preliminary thoughts about tomorrow’s games.
MoSHPlay has settled on Cats by 2 points and also now has some preliminary thoughts about the remaining games in the round.
MoSHPlay’s preliminary thought (often it only has one) about tomorrow’s game is Cats by 2 points.
The MoS twins again have a few sizeable differences of opinion this week, with six games seeing them separated by 2 points or more in their Total forecasts and two of those by more than 5 points. Overall, however, the difference in their average Total is just a point. Their differences to the bookmakers’ overall averages range from 1 to 3 points.
Read MoreTipping winners is not getting any easier. Seven of this week’s nine games are expected to be won by three goals or less, an eighth by about six-and-a-half goals, and the ninth by just over nine goals.
Those are fairly similar numbers to what we had last week, and that produced five games with game margins under 3 goals and had most Head-to-Head Predictors scoring 6 from 9, at best.
Let’s see what the models make of the week.
Read MoreMAFL is a website for ...
(For those not wanting to use PayPal, my email address below is now also a PayID)
Click on the envelope
Copyright © 2006-2025, Tony Corke. All rights reserved.
