Geelong and Collingwood both saw their Combined Ratings decline this week on both Systems, which allowed GWS to extend its lead to 2.4 Scoring Shots over Geelong on MoSSBODS, and 6.8 points over Geelong on MoSHBODS.

Both Systems now have the same Top 3 of GWS, Geelong, and Collingwood, though, after that, the rankings become a lot more contentious.

In any other year, an all-Predictor average mean absolute error (MAE) of 21.5 points per game would be exceptional but, given the crazy-low MAEs we’ve seen earlier in the season, it’s hard not to feel just a little bit disappointed.

As I write this, the TAB is still to post a Totals market on the Saints v Lions game (and a bunch of other markets, besides), so for now I’ve assumed they’ll eventually put up a total close to, or the same as, Easybet’s. That’s certainly a reasonable extrapolation from what we’ve seen so far this round, but it is slightly weird that there’s no actual market from them.

Asking around, the politest explanation for this absence is forgetfulness, but were I running a multi-billion dollar enterprise I reckon I’d not accept that, as a boss, as a reasonable excuse. Those of you who’ve followed me for a while I hope might recognise that I’m, if anything, a forgiving soul. but this is, frankly, more than a bit embarrassing.

Anyway, on the assumption that this is correct, we have the MoS twins and the two bookmakers in complete agreement in terms of average totals.

You might, legitimately, have a contrary position, but I confess to be startled for the second week running that a league that's decided to schedule 6 games for the entire round might choose to put one of them on a Thursday night.

This week is the last of the short rounds for the season, and forecasters again face a challenging, if truncated, set of conundrums (or, equally correctly, conundra).

With the teams second and third on the Ratings ladders - viz, the Pies and the Cats - both having a bye this weekend, GWS had the chance to extend its lead over the pair, which it did under MoSHBODS but not under MoSSBODS where a 3 scoring shot victory was deemed to be insufficiently large to justify the estimated pre-game difference in abilities.

Six of the MoS Head-to-Head Tipsters correctly selected all six winners this week, aided by the fact that all half-dozen of them were the favourites. That left the Leaderboard with MoSHPlay_Marg atop it on 76 from 111 (69%), three tips clear of Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins.

It seems a little too soon to me, but here we are late on a Wednesday night contemplating an Over/Under market for a game tomorrow night. Spreading six games across four days rather than three (or even two) seems a bit ill-considered to me, but I don’t fully understand the economics of that decision.

Just the one game with named teams at this point, and it sees MoSHPlay coming down heavily in favour of the home team Crows. MoSHPlay has them winning by 36 points, which is 19 points more than MoSHBODS’ expected margin.

It’s conceivable - though admittedly unlikely - that all six underdogs could win this week, since the average expected margin has come in at just 9.8 points per game. All but one the favourites - Adelaide - is expected to win by less than 2 goals, and two of them by only about 1 goal or less.

Despite losing to Adelaide, GWS retained top spot on both MoS Rating Systems, though Collingwood closed the gap to GWS to just 2.2 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, while a newly-installed-in-2nd-place Geelong finds itself just 7.3 points behind GWS on MoSHBODS.

MoSHPlay tipped four winners this week, one more than every other Head-to-Head Tipster except MoSHBODS_Marg, C_Marg, and Home Sweet Home, to leave it now two tips clear at the head of the Leaderboard and on 70 from 105 (67%).

This week’s biggest differences between MoSHPlay and MoSHBODS are, for now, the following:

• Difference 20 points: Tigers v Cats (MoSHPlay Cats by 22; MoSHBODS Cats by 2)

• Difference 8 points: Suns v Roos (MoSHPlay Roos by 20; MoSHBODS Roos by 12)

• Difference 7 points: Pies v Dees (MoSHPlay Pies by 27; MoSHBODS Pies by 20)

Note that MoSHPlay and MoSHBODS are currently tipping the same winner in every game.

This week, I think for the first time this season, the MoS twins find themselves forecasting higher totals, on average, than do the bookmakers.

A return to forecasts suggesting close games this week, with none of the contests expected to be decided by much more than 3 goals, and half of the six games expected to be decided by less than 2 goals. The week’s average has come in at 14.0 points per game, which is the second-lowest average of the season.

GWS opened up a gap to Collingwood on both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this week after its 73-point and 18 Scoring Shot victory over the Suns, and the Pies’ 4-point and 4 Scoring Shot loss to Fremantle.

MoSHPlay tipped eight winners this week, including the Roos’ upset win over the Tigers, to restore its one tip lead at the head of the Head-to-Head Tipsters Leaderboard. Its record is now 66 from 99 (67%). There were seven successful favourites, which helped the remaining Tipsters score 6 or 7 from 9 themselves, and left the all-Tipster average for the round at 6.9 from 9.

This week’s biggest differences between MoSHPlay and MoSHBODS are, for now, the following:

• Difference 19 points: Giants v Suns (MoSHPlay Giants by 68; MoSHBODS Giants by 49)

• Difference 12 points: Roos v Tigers (MoSHPlay Roos by 1; MoSHBODS Tigers by 11)

• Difference 12 points: Pies v Dockers (MoSHPlay Pies by 45; MoSHBODS Pies by 33)

• Difference 10 points: Dons v Blues (MoSHPlay Dons by 36; MoSHBODS Dons by 26)

Note that MoSHPlay and MoSHBODS are tipping the same winner in every game except North Melbourne v Richmond (though late changes may alter this).

This week sees seven of the contests with double-digit expected margins, and six with margins greater than twenty points, which has resulted in the first round of the season where the average expected margin exceeds four goals. It’s come in at 24.3 points per game.

This week, the MoS twins find themselves again broadly in synch with the bookmakers, and forecasting an average team score of just over 80 points per game.