2019 - Round 13 Results - Crazy MAE

Six of the MoS Head-to-Head Tipsters correctly selected all six winners this week, aided by the fact that all half-dozen of them were the favourites. That left the Leaderboard with MoSHPlay_Marg atop it on 76 from 111 (69%), three tips clear of Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins.

The round’s best mean absolute error (MAE) belonged to ENS_Linear, whose absurdly low 9.5 points per game saw it climb two spots into 6th on the Leaderboard. The second-best MAE was Bookie_9’s 10.3, just ahead of MoSHPlay_Marg’s 10.4.

Across all of the Margin Predictors the average was 12.5 points per game, which meant that MoSHBODS_Marg’s 14.2 and MoSSBODS_Marg’s 15.6 were sufficient to drop them down two spots each on the Leaderboard.

In any other year, C_Marg’s all-season average of 27.5 points per game would have seen it at or near the top of the Leaderboard. This year, that performance has it in last place and over 220 points off the lead.

All of the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors registered positive log probability scores this week, best amongst them MoSHPlay_Prob, with the other MoS twins recording the second- and third-best scores.

That’s left the MoS trio sharing the top three places on the Leaderboard, with MoSHPlay_Prob still holding down top spot.


Overall forecasting accuracy did not translate into wagering profits this week - mostly because MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS were amongst the poorest performing forecasters - as only the Head-to-Head Fund managed to end the round better off than it started.

In total, the loss for Round 13 was 1.9c, which took the Combined Portfolio’s price to $1.144, this result coming now from a 14.3% ROI on a 1.01 turn.