2019 - Round 13 : Overs/Unders

It seems a little too soon to me, but here we are late on a Wednesday night contemplating an Over/Under market for a game tomorrow night. Spreading six games across four days rather than three (or even two) seems a bit ill-considered to me, but I don’t fully understand the economics of that decision.

Anyway, more generally, as we look across as the six games on offer, we find the MoS twins in a slightly more normal guise, predicting game totals almost a goal lower than those forecast by the bookmakers.

MoSSBODS has the Suns v Saints as its most-likely low-scoring game, while MoSHBODS has the Dons v Hawks game in that slot. In contrast, the two bookmakers have the Crows v Tigers game fulfilling that role.

As the most-likely high-scoring game we have the MoS twins opting for the Roos v Giants game, and the bookmakers going, instead, with the Blues v Dogs match-up.

For low-scoring team we have unanimity about the Suns for that position, and for high-scoring team the Western Bulldogs (though MoSSBODS would hedge its bets and add the Giants as being equally-likely).


The mean absolute error (MAE) honours for the week belonged, on two metrics, to MoSHBODS, and to MoSSBODS and the TAB on one metric each.

That left MoSHBODS still 1st overall for the season on Home Team Score MAE and Total Score MAE, and Easybet still 1st on Away Team Score MAE, but saw the TAB snatch 1st place on Game Margin in what is virtually a four-way tie.


This week, MoSSBODS has found four wagers in the six games on offer, all of them unders bets.

The overlays in those four games range from about 7 to 12 points, so none of them is estimated to be especially comfortable.

There were no bets last, so MoSSBODS’ record against the TAB stayed at 7 and 5, and that against Easybet stayed at 18 and 12, leaving the overall win rate to 60% for the season.

Across the entirety of the round , the MoS twins landed on the right side of the bookmakers’ totals in only 2 or 3 of the 6 games, leaving MoSSBODS at 58% for the season against the TAB and 60% against Easybet, and MoSHBODS at 59% for the season against the TAB and 58% against Easybet.