2019 - Round 14 Results - Good, Not Brilliant
/In any other year, an all-Predictor average mean absolute error (MAE) of 21.5 points per game would be exceptional but, given the crazy-low MAEs we’ve seen earlier in the season, it’s hard not to feel just a little bit disappointed.
Disappointing, too, was MoSHPlay’s 4 from 6 as a Head-to-Head Tipster, a result that saw its lead cut to just two tips. MoSHPlay is now on 80 from 117 (68%), still ahead of BKB and the RSMP twins all on 78 from 117 (67%).
The round’s best mean absolute error (MAE) belonged to Bookie_9, whose 16.5 points per game saw it climb two spots into 4th on the Leaderboard. MoSHPlay_Marg registered the round’s worst MAE of 26.2 points per game, which slipped it back to 6th.
The only other moves on the Leaderboard were the swapping of 8th and 9th between MoSHBODS_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg.
All of the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors registered positive log probability scores again this week, best amongst them Bookie_LPSO. MoSSBODS_Prob now holds down top spot on the Leaderbaord by the narrowest of margins over MoSHPlay_Prob. MoSHBODS_Prob still lies 3rd.
WAGERS
This week saw a very welcome return to profitability, thanks in large part to Port Adelaide, whose victory over Geelong landed a head-to-head and a line bet. Other collects were line bets on Melbourne and the Western Bulldogs, and on the sole over/under wager.
In total, the profit for Round 14 was 1c, which took the Combined Portfolio’s price to $1.155, this result coming now from a 14.4% ROI on a 1.07 turn.
