2019 - Round 12 : Short Round, Tough Tipping

A return to forecasts suggesting close games this week, with none of the contests expected to be decided by much more than 3 goals, and half of the six games expected to be decided by less than 2 goals. The week’s average has come in at 14.0 points per game, which is the second-lowest average of the season.

(Note that there have been some adjustments to the averages for the last couple of rounds to correct an Excel formula error.)

In the context of typical Round 12s, this week ranks 1st amongst the averages since 2012, lowering the 2016 record by almost 3 points per game.

The all-season 2019 average now stands at 17.1 points per game, which keeps us on track to beat the all-season record of 18.0 set in 2017.

To the MoS models then.


Home Sweet Home aside, there’s again only limited support for underdog this week, with MoSSBODS_Marg the only other Head-to-Head Tipster tipping more than one upset.

It’ll be interesting to see what our leading Tipster, MoSHPlay_Marg, comes up with on Thursday night. It bases its forecasts partly on MoSHBODS_Marg who has tipped only one underdog win, but does have the Cats as only 2-point favourites.

Amongst the Margin Predictors, half of the games have forecast home margins on either side of zero, though it has to be said only just, with MoSSBODS_Marg tipping a 1-point win for the underdog Tigers, and C_Marg tipping a 2-point win for the underdog Crows.

The largest range of forecasts are for the Cats v Tigers (22 points) and Swans v Eagles (21 points) contests, with the ranges in the other four games all between 9 and 12 points. The mean expected margin across the six games and all Margin Predictors has come in at 11.7 points per game, which is more than 2 points per game below the TAB bookmaker’s average.

MoSSBODS_Marg has the most extreme forecasts in three of the games, MoSHBODS_Marg, C_Marg, Bookie_3 and Bookie_9 in two each.

Turning lastly to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the largest range in percentage point terms in the Richmond v Geelong game where the forecasts span 25% points (from 28% to 52%). Next-largest is the 23% point range for the Sydney v West Coast game. No other game has a range that exceeds 12% points.

C_Prob has the round's most extreme estimates in four contests, the MoS twins in three each, and Bookie_RE in two.


Despite the relative paucity of opportunity, Investors still face three head-to-head and two line bets this week, all of them, roughly, in the 1% to 2% range of their respective Funds.

(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)

The Swans carry the week’s largest risk of just under 3% (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes), ahead of the Tigers (2.3%) and the Suns (0.7%), as you can see in the Ready Reckoner below.

In total, just under 3% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk across three games, and the maximum upside is just over 3%.

To finish, here are MoSSBODS' and MoSHBODS' opinions about likely team scoring.

Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.