2019 - Round 12 : Overs/Unders

This week, I think for the first time this season, the MoS twins find themselves forecasting higher totals, on average, than do the bookmakers.

In this first of three truncated rounds, the MoS twins agree with the bookmakers that the most-likely high-scoring game this week is the Blues v Lions clash, but they have the Swans v West Coast game as their most-likely low-scoring game, while the bookmakers have it as the (expected to be rain-affected) Suns v Roos matchup.

All four forecasters have the Lions as their most-likely high-scoring team - and, most unusually, they all think they’ll score 94 points. MoSSBODS and the two bookmakers have the Suns as their likely low-scoring team, while MoSHBODS has the Dees.


The mean absolute error (MAE) honours for the week belonged mostly to the TAB, though Easybet did match them for Game Margins.

That left MoSHBODS still 1st overall for the season on Home Team Score MAE and Total Score MAE, MoSSBODS still 1st on Game Margin MAE, and Easybet still 1st on Away Team Score MAE.


This week, MoSSBODS found only one potential wager, but it’s for the Suns v Roos game at Carrara where rain is currently forecast, so Investors have wound up with no Overs/Unders bets.

There were two bets last week, both unsuccessful, so MoSSBODS’ record against the TAB moved to 7 and 5, and that against Easybet moved to 18 and 12, dropping the overall win rate to 60% for the season.

It was a poor round, generally, for the MoS twins, with them both landing on the right side of the offered Totals in only 2 of the 9 games against both bookmakers. That left MoSSBODS at 60% for the season against the TAB and 61% against Easybet, and MoSHBODS at 61% for the season against the TAB and 60% against Easybet.