It’s conceivable - though admittedly unlikely - that all six underdogs could win this week, since the average expected margin has come in at just 9.8 points per game. All but one the favourites - Adelaide - is expected to win by less than 2 goals, and two of them by only about 1 goal or less.
That’s the lowest ever single round average in the history of the data shown here, and it drags the all-season 2019 average down to 16.7 points per game, which is now more than four points per game below the all-season 2018 average.
That, you’d expect is going to make forecasts, at least of winners, especially challenging. Let’s see what the MoS models think.
TIPS AND PREDICTIONS
For the most part - with the usual Home Sweet Home caveat - the Head-to-Head Tipsters have gone with the favourites, however narrow, this week.
C_Marg has tipped Hawks and Roos upset wins, while Consult The Ladder and RSMP_Simple have opted for Port Adelaide. It’s only the second time this season that the RSMP twins have found themselves tipping different winners.
Amongst the Margin Predictors, we again have half of the games with forecast home margins on either side of zero, though with only one contrarian in each case: C_Marg twice, and RSMP_Simple once.
The largest range of forecasts are for the Roos v Giants game, where it’s 31 points thanks to C_Marg). Three more games have ranges of 17 or 18 points, and the remaining two have ranges of 10 and 14 points. The mean expected margin across the six games and all Margin Predictors has come in at 9.3 points per game, which is half a point per game below the TAB bookmaker’s average.
C_Marg and MoSSBODS_Marg have the most extreme forecasts in four of the games, ENS_Linear in two, and Bookie_9 and RSMP_Simple in one each.
Turning lastly to the Head-to-Head Probability Predictors, we find the largest range in percentage point terms in the Roos v Giants game where the forecasts span 33% points (from 32% to 65%). Next-largest is the 18% point range for the Dons v Hawks game, though two other games have 17% point ranges (Dockers v Port, and Blues v Dogs), and one more has a 15% point range (Suns v Saints).
C_Prob and MoSSBODS_Prob have the round's most extreme estimates in five contests, Bookie_LPSO in two, and MoSHBODS_Prob in one.
It’s a quiet week for Investors this week, with a lone, medium-sized head-to-head wager paired with two smallish line bets.
(Please click on the image below to access a larger version.)
Three teams carry roughly the same risk this week of just over 1% (as measured by the difference between best and worst outcomes), as you can see in the Ready Reckoner below.
In total, just under 2% of the original Combined Portfolio is at risk across three games, and the maximum upside is just under 2%.
To finish, here are MoSSBODS' and MoSHBODS' opinions about likely team scoring.
Commentary about these forecasts will come in the week's Overs/Unders blog and MoSHPlay’s various forecasts will be posted after the relevant team line-ups are made public.