You might, legitimately, have a contrary position, but I confess to be startled for the second week running that a league that's decided to schedule 6 games for the entire round might choose to put one of them on a Thursday night.

This week is the last of the short rounds for the season, and forecasters again face a challenging, if truncated, set of conundrums (or, equally correctly, conundra).

With the teams second and third on the Ratings ladders - viz, the Pies and the Cats - both having a bye this weekend, GWS had the chance to extend its lead over the pair, which it did under MoSHBODS but not under MoSSBODS where a 3 scoring shot victory was deemed to be insufficiently large to justify the estimated pre-game difference in abilities.

Six of the MoS Head-to-Head Tipsters correctly selected all six winners this week, aided by the fact that all half-dozen of them were the favourites. That left the Leaderboard with MoSHPlay_Marg atop it on 76 from 111 (69%), three tips clear of Bookie Knows Best and the RSMP twins.

It seems a little too soon to me, but here we are late on a Wednesday night contemplating an Over/Under market for a game tomorrow night. Spreading six games across four days rather than three (or even two) seems a bit ill-considered to me, but I don’t fully understand the economics of that decision.

Just the one game with named teams at this point, and it sees MoSHPlay coming down heavily in favour of the home team Crows. MoSHPlay has them winning by 36 points, which is 19 points more than MoSHBODS’ expected margin.

It’s conceivable - though admittedly unlikely - that all six underdogs could win this week, since the average expected margin has come in at just 9.8 points per game. All but one the favourites - Adelaide - is expected to win by less than 2 goals, and two of them by only about 1 goal or less.

Despite losing to Adelaide, GWS retained top spot on both MoS Rating Systems, though Collingwood closed the gap to GWS to just 2.2 Scoring Shots on MoSSBODS, while a newly-installed-in-2nd-place Geelong finds itself just 7.3 points behind GWS on MoSHBODS.

MoSHPlay tipped four winners this week, one more than every other Head-to-Head Tipster except MoSHBODS_Marg, C_Marg, and Home Sweet Home, to leave it now two tips clear at the head of the Leaderboard and on 70 from 105 (67%).

This week’s biggest differences between MoSHPlay and MoSHBODS are, for now, the following:

• Difference 20 points: Tigers v Cats (MoSHPlay Cats by 22; MoSHBODS Cats by 2)

• Difference 8 points: Suns v Roos (MoSHPlay Roos by 20; MoSHBODS Roos by 12)

• Difference 7 points: Pies v Dees (MoSHPlay Pies by 27; MoSHBODS Pies by 20)

Note that MoSHPlay and MoSHBODS are currently tipping the same winner in every game.

This week, I think for the first time this season, the MoS twins find themselves forecasting higher totals, on average, than do the bookmakers.

A return to forecasts suggesting close games this week, with none of the contests expected to be decided by much more than 3 goals, and half of the six games expected to be decided by less than 2 goals. The week’s average has come in at 14.0 points per game, which is the second-lowest average of the season.

GWS opened up a gap to Collingwood on both MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this week after its 73-point and 18 Scoring Shot victory over the Suns, and the Pies’ 4-point and 4 Scoring Shot loss to Fremantle.

MoSHPlay tipped eight winners this week, including the Roos’ upset win over the Tigers, to restore its one tip lead at the head of the Head-to-Head Tipsters Leaderboard. Its record is now 66 from 99 (67%). There were seven successful favourites, which helped the remaining Tipsters score 6 or 7 from 9 themselves, and left the all-Tipster average for the round at 6.9 from 9.

This week’s biggest differences between MoSHPlay and MoSHBODS are, for now, the following:

• Difference 19 points: Giants v Suns (MoSHPlay Giants by 68; MoSHBODS Giants by 49)

• Difference 12 points: Roos v Tigers (MoSHPlay Roos by 1; MoSHBODS Tigers by 11)

• Difference 12 points: Pies v Dockers (MoSHPlay Pies by 45; MoSHBODS Pies by 33)

• Difference 10 points: Dons v Blues (MoSHPlay Dons by 36; MoSHBODS Dons by 26)

Note that MoSHPlay and MoSHBODS are tipping the same winner in every game except North Melbourne v Richmond (though late changes may alter this).

This week sees seven of the contests with double-digit expected margins, and six with margins greater than twenty points, which has resulted in the first round of the season where the average expected margin exceeds four goals. It’s come in at 24.3 points per game.

This week, the MoS twins find themselves again broadly in synch with the bookmakers, and forecasting an average team score of just over 80 points per game.

GWS did enough this week to retain its number 1 ranking on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS, gaining Ratings Points on both Systems while the 2nd-placed Collingwood kept the same Rating on MoSSBODS and fell slightly on MoSHBODS. Geelong performed similarly to Collingwood across the two Systems and remains 3rd on both.

Seven favourites were victorious this week, so head-to-head tipping results were generally good, though none of the MoS Head-to-Head Tipsters managed better than seven from nine. The RSMP twins were two of those that bagged seven which, in RSMP_Simple’s case, was enough to drag it into equal leadership with a slightly out of form MoSHPlay_Marg who bagged only five.

This week’s biggest differences between MoSHPlay and MoSHBODS are, for now, the following:

• Difference 14 points: Tigers v Dons (MoSHPlay Dons by 5; MoSHBODS Tigers by 9)

• Difference 12 points: Suns v Cats (MoSHPlay Cats by 40; MoSHBODS Cats by 28)

• Difference 10 points: Dogs v Roos (MoSHPlay Dogs by 17; MoSHBODS Dogs by 7)

• Difference 8 points: Swans v Pies (MoSHPlay Pies by 27; MoSHBODS Pies by 19)

• Difference 8 points: Hawks v Power (MoSHPlay Hawks by 0.1; MoSHBODS Power by 8)

• Difference 7 points: Dees v Giants (MoSHPlay Giants by 22; MoSHBODS Giants by 15)

• Difference 7 points: Saints v Blues (MoSHPlay Saints by 15; MoSHBODS Saints by 22)

Note that MoSHPlay and MoSHBODS are tipping the same winner in every game except Hawthorn v Port Adelaide (though late changes may alter this).