WoSHBODS tipped seven from nine winners again this week, which was again one better than the bookmakers. It also recorded a Margin MAE of just 9.8 points per game (compared to 12.1 and 12.3 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of 24.7 points per game (compared to 22.1 for both bookmakers).
The LPS of 2.9 bits per game compares to 3.3 bits per game for the bookmakers.
Read MoreWoSHBODS has taken:
North Melbourne v Collingwood: 3.9% u83.5 @ $1.85
(WoSHBODS would have taken the overs in the Essendon and West Coast games, but showers are forecast)
WoSHBODS has taken:
Gold Coast v GWS: 4.1% o78.5 @ $1.87 (there is a medium chance of showers forecast for the Gold Coast, but they are considered to be ‘less likely in the afternoon’)
According to the bookmakers, Round 4 of the AFLW comprises:
Four games expected to be decided by less than a goal
Two games expected to be decided by between two and three goals
Two games expected to be decided by just over four goals
One game expected to be decided by just under eight goals
Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which includes one underdog win (Brisbane) and one maybe underdog win depending on who you talk to (Port Adelaide).
The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is 16.3 points, while WoSHBODS’ is 19.3 points per game.
Read MoreThis year’s post Round 3 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:
For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal
Also, note that these are early-season estimates and are therefore likely to have large standard errors associated with them. I expect them to change significantly over the next few weeks.
North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 90% chances of being Minor Premier
Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier
Hawthorn and Sydney: about 90-95% chance of being finalists; around 60% chances of Top 4; roughly 2-3% chances of being Minor Premier
Adelaide and Brisbane: about 80-85% chance of being finalists; around 30% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Carlton: about 70% chances of being finalists; around 15% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Essendon, Western Bulldogs, and Geelong: around 40-45% chances of being finalists; around 5-10% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Port Adelaide and West Coast: around 15-25% chances of being finalists; around 2-4% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Fremantle, Collingwood, St Kilda, and Richmond: around 2-10% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
GWS and Gold Coast: <1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
WoSHBODS tipped seven from nine winners this week, while the bookmakers tipped six, and recorded a Margin MAE of 26.7 points per game (compared to 28.2 to 28.3 for the bookmakers) and a Totals MAE of 24.1 points per game (compared to 24.8 to 24.9 for the bookmakers)
The LPS of 2.1 bits per game compares to 1.8 to 2.1 bits per game for the bookmakers.
Read MoreWoSHBODS sees value in all three of today’s games and has taken:
Collingwood v Melbourne: 3.2% u84.5 $1.90
Fremantle v North Melbourne: 3% u81.5 $1.87
Brisbane v Carlton: 0.4% o79.5 $1.87
There are forecasts for rain in a number of the Melbourne-based games today, but that rain seems likely to have cleared by game time, so WoSHBODS has taken the overs in those games. It’s also taken the overs in the Adelaide game, and the unders in the Sydney game:
GWS v Adelaide: 1.9% u89.5 $1.85
St Kilda v West Coast: 0.3% o68.5 $1.87
Geelong v Sydney: 1.4% o83.5 $1.90
Port Adelaide v Gold Coast: 1.2% o80.5 $1.87
Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn: 2.7% o70.5 $1.87
WoSHBODS has taken:
Richmond v Essendon: 1.8% o72.5 $1.90
Round 3 of the AFLW looks a lot less competitive than Round 2, with the early markets for three games suggesting that their final game margin will be under two goals, two more games expected to finish with a margin in the two to four goal range, and the remaining four games expected to finish with a margin of over four goals.
Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which includes just a single underdog win (Sydney).
The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is 20.8 points, while WoSHBODS’ is 25.4 points per game.
Read MoreThis year’s post Round 2 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:
For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal
Also, note that these are early-season estimates and are therefore likely to have large standard errors associated with them. I expect them to change significantly over the next few weeks.
North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 60% chances of being Minor Premier
Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 85% chances of Top 4; roughly 25% chances of being Minor Premier
Hawthorn, Brisbane, and Sydney: about 90-95% chance of being finalists; around 45-65% chances of Top 4; roughly 4-8% chances of being Minor Premier
Adelaide: about 80% chance of being finalists; around 25% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Geelong and Essendon: 45-50% chances of being finalists; around 5-10% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, Carlton, and St Kilda: 25-30% chances of being finalists; around 1-3% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Port Adelaide and West Coast: around 10-15% chance of being finalists; <1-1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Collingwood, Richmond, and GWS: around 2-3% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Gold Coast: <1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
WoSHBODS tipped seven from nine winners this week, while the bookmakers tipped eight, and recorded a Margin MAE of 39.9 points per game and a Totals MAE of 30.2 points per game.
The Margin MAE was blown out in particular by the four victories of 70 points or more, which were considerably higher than expected.
Read MoreWith all remaining markets now posted, WoSHBODS has taken:
Essendon v West Coast: 1.6% u80.5 $1.87
North Melbourne v Port Adelaide: 3.2% u84.5 $1.87
Currently, there are markets up for all five Saturday games, and WoSHBODS has taken:
Melbourne v St Kilda: 1% u76.5 $1.87
Gold Coast v Sydney: 0.3% o79.5 $1.87
Round 2 of the AFLW looks a little less competitive than Round 1, with only two of the early markets suggesting that a final game margin will be under about two goals, six games expected to finish with a margin in the two to three goal range, one game expected to finish with a margin just over three goals, and the final remaining game expected to finish with a margin of about five-and-a-half goals.
Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which includes just a single underdog win (GWS), but a distribution of expected margins generally nearer zero:
Under 2 goals: 5 games
From 2 to under 4 goals: 2 games
Over 4 goals: 2 games
The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is 15.4 points, while WoSHBODS’ is 13.6 points.
Read MoreThis year’s post Round 1 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:
For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal
Also, note that these are early-season estimates and are therefore likely to have large standard errors associated with them. I expect them to change significantly over the next few weeks.
North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 50% chances of being Minor Premier
Hawthorn, Melbourne, and Brisbane: 80-85% chance of being finalists; around 45-60% chances of Top 4; roughly 5-15% chances of being Minor Premier
St Kilda, Fremantle, Geelong, and Adelaide: 60-70% chances of being finalists; around 25-30% chances of Top 4; roughly 1-5% chances of being Minor Premier
Sydney and Essendon: 45-50% chances of being finalists; around 15% chances of Top 4; roughly 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier
Port Adelaide, Carlton, and Richmond: around 20-30% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
West Coast, GWS, Gold Coast, and Western Bulldogs: around 10% chance of being finalists; around 1-2% chances of Top 4; roughly <1% chances of being Minor Premier
Collingwood: around 1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
WoSHBODS tipped six from nine winners this week, as did the bookmakers, but also recorded a Margin MAE of 25.3 points per game and a Totals MAE of 13.8 points per game.
Read MoreAfter waiting - fruitlessly - for Sportsbet to frame Totals markets for today’s games, WoSHBODS has taken:
Brisbane v Hawthorn: 3.8% u90.5 $1.87
St Kilda v Adelaide: 2.6% u80.5 $1.87
A third, overs, bet on the Port Adelaide v Fremantle game has been passed due to forecast rain.
WoSHBODS has taken:
GWS v Essendon: 2.4% u81.5 $1.85
Western Bulldogs v Melbourne: 0.3% u75.5 $1.87
Both bookmakers are setting the Total at 80.5 tonight. WoSHBODS has no interest.
The TAB has now posted Totals markets for both of tonight’s games, and WoSHBODS, as predicted has preferred Sportsbet, but for minimal amounts. It has:
Carlton v Collingwood: 0.1% u75.5 $1.85
West Coast v Gold Coast: 0.1% u77.5 $1.85
At this point, the TAB has not posted any Totals markets, and Sportsbet has posted just the two for tonight’s games. It’s likely WoSHBODS will be making very small unders wagers on both games, but I’ll be waiting until closer to game time to commit, hoping that the TAB might have something to offer as well.
Round 1 of the AFLW looks fairly competitive, with only two of the early markets suggesting that a game margin will exceed about two goals, and in neither of those is it expected to exceed three-and-a-half goals.
Here are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which include forecast wins by three away teams and by two underdogs (Richmond by 9 points, and Fremantle, narrowly)
The distribution of WoSHBODS expected margins is as follows:
Under 2 goals: 6 games
From 2 to under 4 goals: 3 games
Over 4 goals: 0 games
This year’s pre Round 1 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:
For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal
Also, note that these are pre-season estimates and are therefore likely to have large standard errors associated with them. I expect them to change significantly over the next few weeks.
North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 40% chances of being Minor Premier
Brisbane, Adelaide, and Hawthorn: 75-85% chance of being finalists; around 45-55% chances of Top 4; roughly 10-15% chances of being Minor Premier
Melbourne and Geelong: 60-70% chances of being finalists; around 25-35% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier
Fremantle, Port Adelaide, and Richmond: around 45-50% chance of being finalists; 15-20% chances of Top 4; 2-3% chances of being Minor Premier
Essendon, St Kilda, Sydney, and GWS: around 25-35% chance of being finalists; around 5-10% chances of Top 4; roughly <1-1% chances of being Minor Premier
Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast, West Coast, Carlton, and Collingwood: around 10-15% chance of being finalists; around 1-4% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier
WoSHBODS tipped the winner of the Grand Final, and recorded a Margin MAE of just under 11.5 points per game and a Totals MAE of 28.2 points per game.
That took its season-long figures to 77.5 from 108 (72%) for accuracy, 19.1 for Margin MAE, and 17.5 for Totals MAE, which is roughly as good as the bookmakers on accuracy, better than them on Margin MAE, and a little worse on Total MAE (and on LPS)..
Read MoreWoSHBODS has taken:
North Melbourne v Brisbane 0.4% o73.5 @ $1.87
WoSHBODS has the Roos defeating the Lions by just over 3 goals in the final game of the season, perhaps by 6.11 to 4.5, or 7.6 to 3.11.
Read MoreWoSHBODS tipped both winners in Week 3 of the Finals, although you could argue that it tipped only one if you took more notice of its probability estimates than its margin forecasts.
It also recorded a Margin MAE of 17.2 points per game and a Totals MAE of 17.4 points per game.
Those numbers took its season-long figures to 76.5 from 107 (72%) for accuracy, 19.2 for Margin MAE, and 17.4 for Totals MAE.
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