AFLW 2025 - Round 1

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Round 1 of the AFLW looks fairly competitive, with only two of the early markets suggesting that a game margin will exceed about two goals, and in neither of those is it expected to exceed three-and-a-half goals.

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which include forecast wins by three away teams and by two underdogs (Richmond by 9 points, and Fremantle, narrowly)

The distribution of WoSHBODS expected margins is as follows:

  • Under 2 goals: 6 games

  • From 2 to under 4 goals: 3 games

  • Over 4 goals: 0 games

Note that WoSHBODS’ Team Ratings are now, like MoSHBODS and MoSSBODS, denominated in terms of fractions of the standard deviation of all-team scoring across the last 365 days, which is currently at about 19.3 points. So, for example, a -0.62 SD offensive rating means that the team is expected to score roughly 12 points less against an average team at a neutral venue than would an average team against the same team at the same venue.

WoSHBODS Wagering

WoSHBODS will wager exactly as it did last year, which is to say that

  • it will bet in the Head-to-Head, Line, and Over/Under markets

  • it will 1/10th Kelly stake any bet that has a positive expected return (regardless of how small or how large)

  • its Combined Portfolio will comprise

    • 65% Line Fund

    • 25% Head to Head Fund

    • 10% Over/Under Fund

WoSHBODS this week has head-to-head wagers in eight games, although four of those wages are for 0.4% or less of the Head-to-Head Fund, and are therefore largely inconsequential. Two of the head-to-head bets are, however, sized 2.4% and 4.2% of the Fund, and they will certainly matter.

Altogether, the head-to-head bets represent just under 10% of the Head-to-Head Fund and are at a bet-size weighted average price of $2.67.

There are also five line wagers ranging in size from 0.5% to 4%, totalling just under 8% of the Line Fund and for prices ranging from $1.87 to $1.90 and lines from -18.5 to +21.5.

By far the most important result for Investors this week is that from the Sydney v Richmond game where a Richmond loss by 8 points or more would lop 3.7c off the price of the Combined Portfolio, and a Richmond win of any size would add 4c to the price of the Combined Portfolio.

The three other games with large differences between best and worst outcomes are:

  • North Melbourne (v Geelong): Loss results in a 1.8c drop and a win by 14 points or more results in a 1.2c gain

  • Western Bulldogs (v Melbourne): Loss by 22 points or more results in a 0.9c drop and a win of any size results in a 1.8c gain

  • Hawthorn (v Brisbane): Loss by 11 points or more results in a 0.6c drop and a win of any size results in a 0.8c gain

Altogther, just under 8% of the Combined Portfolio is at risk across all 13 wagers, and a best case set of results would see that risk rewarded by a lift in the Portfolio price of just under 9c.