AFLW 2025 - Simulations Before Round 1

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This year’s pre Round 1 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

Also, note that these are pre-season estimates and are therefore likely to have large standard errors associated with them. I expect them to change significantly over the next few weeks.

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 40% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Brisbane, Adelaide, and Hawthorn: 75-85% chance of being finalists; around 45-55% chances of Top 4; roughly 10-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Melbourne and Geelong: 60-70% chances of being finalists; around 25-35% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Fremantle, Port Adelaide, and Richmond: around 45-50% chance of being finalists; 15-20% chances of Top 4; 2-3% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Essendon, St Kilda, Sydney, and GWS: around 25-35% chance of being finalists; around 5-10% chances of Top 4; roughly <1-1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast, West Coast, Carlton, and Collingwood: around 10-15% chance of being finalists; around 1-4% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have nine teams with a 9-in-20 or better chance of finishing Top 8, and nine with about or better than a 1-in-6 chance of finishing Top 4.

At this point it looks as though 6.5 to 7 wins will be what’s required by most teams to make the Final 8.

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • North Melbourne (about $2.75)

  • Brisbane and Adelaide (about $6.25)

  • Hawthorn (about $9.10)

  • Geelong (about $20)

  • Fremantle and Melbourne (about $25)

Comparing these numbers with the current bookmaker markets suggests that our preliminary ordering of the teams is not too bad, with the possible exceptions of Fremantle (too high) and Collingwood (too low).

COMBINATIONS AND PERMUTATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 10,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 10,000 different Top 18s

  • 9,995 different Top 8s (which contain 2,973 unique sets of 8 teams in some order)

  • 4,137 different Top 4s (which contain 848 unique sets of 4 teams in some order)

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 12 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are:

  • There’s about a 9-in-20 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages

  • There’s about a 4-in-10 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages

  • There’s about a 1-in-4 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages