AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 1

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This year’s post Round 1 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

Also, note that these are early-season estimates and are therefore likely to have large standard errors associated with them. I expect them to change significantly over the next few weeks.

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 50% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Hawthorn, Melbourne, and Brisbane: 80-85% chance of being finalists; around 45-60% chances of Top 4; roughly 5-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. St Kilda, Fremantle, Geelong, and Adelaide: 60-70% chances of being finalists; around 25-30% chances of Top 4; roughly 1-5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Sydney and Essendon: 45-50% chances of being finalists; around 15% chances of Top 4; roughly 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Port Adelaide, Carlton, and Richmond: around 20-30% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. West Coast, GWS, Gold Coast, and Western Bulldogs: around 10% chance of being finalists; around 1-2% chances of Top 4; roughly <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Collingwood: around 1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

LADDER FINISHES

The home and away ladder and Finals projections appear below.

We have 10 teams with a 9-in-20 or better chance of finishing Top 8, and 10 with about or better than a 1-in-6 chance of finishing Top 4.

At this point it looks as though 6.5 to 7 wins will be what’s required by most teams to make the Final 8.

FORECASTS FOR THE FINALS

Looking next at Finals prospects, we have:

Flag favouritism is currently, in order (with fair prices shown in brackets):

  • North Melbourne (about $2.35)

  • Brisbane and Hawthorn (about $7.70)

  • Melbourne and Adelaide (about $16.70)

  • Fremantle (about $20)

Comparing these numbers with the current bookmaker markets suggests that our ordering of the teams is not too bad.

COMBINATIONS AND PERMUTATIONS IN TOP X TEAMS

In the latest 10,000 simulation replicates there were:

  • 10,000 different Top 18s

  • 9,967 different Top 8s (which contain 2,020 unique sets of 8 teams in some order of a maximum possible 43,758 or about 23%)

  • 3,284 different Top 4s (which contain 643 unique sets of 4 teams in some order of a maximum possible 3,060 or about 21%)

LIKELY IMPORTANCE OF PERCENTAGE

As the final table for this week, we’ll use the simulations to investigate the estimated likelihood that any given pair of ladder positions will be determined after Round 12 based on percentage.

So, our current estimates are:

  • There’s about a 1-in-2 chance that 8th will be decided on percentages (48% up from 45%)

  • There’s about a 4-in-9 chance that 4th will be decided on percentages (44% up from 41%)

  • There’s about a 1-in-4 chance that 1st will be decided on percentages (27% up from 26%)