AFLW 2025 - Round 2

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Round 2 of the AFLW looks a little less competitive than Round 1, with only two of the early markets suggesting that a final game margin will be under about two goals, six games expected to finish with a margin in the two to three goal range, one game expected to finish with a margin just over three goals, and the final remaining game expected to finish with a margin of about five-and-a-half goals.

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which includes just a single underdog win (GWS), but a distribution of expected margins generally nearer zero:

  • Under 2 goals: 5 games

  • From 2 to under 4 goals: 2 games

  • Over 4 goals: 2 games

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is 15.4 points, while WoSHBODS’ is 13.6 points.

Here’s some detail about WoSHBODS’ views:

WoSHBODS Wagering

I think I entered the wagering markets a little too soon this week and so faced shenanigans at almost every turn. The table at right summarises the wagers that I wanted when I first saw the markets, and the wagers that I secured as the attractive prices kept slipping away as I entered bets.

Head-to-head wagers were generally less problematic, although GWS rapidly slipped from $3.60 to $3.00, and Port Adelaide from $14 to $11 during the value-shredding frenzy.

Virtually all of the line wagers were struggles, with some lines moving by as much as half a goal while I was watching. Bear in mind that such a move is far more significant in AFLW because scoring and margins tend to be lower. A move, for example, from +12.5 to +9.5 is roughly equivant to a change in a team’s underlying victory probability of over 4% points.

When it was all done, WoSHBODS had head-to-head wagers in eight games, in sizes ranging from 0.1% to 4.8% of the original Head-to-Head Fund and totalling just over 14% of that Fund.

It also had line wagers in eight games, in sizes ranging from 0.7% to 4.2% of the original Line Fund and totalling just under 14% of that Fund.

Aggregated, that means about 12.5% of the entire Combined Portfolio is at risk this weekend.

We can see how that risk is spread across games and teams by referring to the Ready Reckoner below.

By far the most important result for Investors this week is that from the Collingwood v GWS game where a GWS win of any size would add 5.3c to the price of the Combined Portfolio, and a GWS loss by more than 2 goals would lop 3.9c off the price of the Combined Portfolio.

For the other games, the differences between best and worst outcomes are:

  • St Kilda (v Melbourne): Loss by 16 points or more results in a 1.8c drop and a win of any size results in a 3.2c gain

  • Essendon (v West Coast): Loss of any size results in a 1.7c drop and a win by 14 points or more results in a 1.2c gain

  • Geelong (v Adelaide): Loss by 12 points or more results in a 1.2c drop and a win of any size results in a 1.7c gain

  • Hawthorn (v Carlton): Loss of any size results in a 1.6c drop and a win by 17 points or more results in a 1.2c gain

  • Western Bulldogs (v Richmond): Loss by 17 points or more results in a 0.9c drop and a win of any size results in a 1.8c gain

  • Gold Coast (v Sydney): Loss by 16 points or more results in a 0.8c drop and a win of any size results in a 1.4c gain

  • Port Adelaide (v North Melbourne): Loss by 36 points or more results in a 0.5c drop and a win of any size results in a 0.7c gain

Altogther, just over 12% of the Combined Portfolio is at risk across all 16 wagers, and a best case set of results would see that risk rewarded by a lift in the Portfolio price of just under 16c.