AFLW 2025 - Round 4

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According to the bookmakers, Round 4 of the AFLW comprises:

  • Four games expected to be decided by less than a goal

  • Two games expected to be decided by between two and three goals

  • Two games expected to be decided by just over four goals

  • One game expected to be decided by just under eight goals

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which includes one underdog win (Brisbane) and one maybe underdog win depending on who you talk to (Port Adelaide).

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is 16.3 points, while WoSHBODS’ is 19.3 points per game.

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AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 3

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This year’s post Round 3 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

Also, note that these are early-season estimates and are therefore likely to have large standard errors associated with them. I expect them to change significantly over the next few weeks.

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; virtually certain of Top 4; roughly 90% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn and Sydney: about 90-95% chance of being finalists; around 60% chances of Top 4; roughly 2-3% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Adelaide and Brisbane: about 80-85% chance of being finalists; around 30% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Carlton: about 70% chances of being finalists; around 15% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Essendon, Western Bulldogs, and Geelong: around 40-45% chances of being finalists; around 5-10% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Port Adelaide and West Coast: around 15-25% chances of being finalists; around 2-4% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Fremantle, Collingwood, St Kilda, and Richmond: around 2-10% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. GWS and Gold Coast: <1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

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AFLW 2025 - Round 3 - Unders/Overs

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UPDATE 11:45AM SUNDAY

WoSHBODS sees value in all three of today’s games and has taken:

  • Collingwood v Melbourne: 3.2% u84.5 $1.90

  • Fremantle v North Melbourne: 3% u81.5 $1.87

  • Brisbane v Carlton: 0.4% o79.5 $1.87

UPDATE 11:45AM SATURDAY

There are forecasts for rain in a number of the Melbourne-based games today, but that rain seems likely to have cleared by game time, so WoSHBODS has taken the overs in those games. It’s also taken the overs in the Adelaide game, and the unders in the Sydney game:

  • GWS v Adelaide: 1.9% u89.5 $1.85

  • St Kilda v West Coast: 0.3% o68.5 $1.87

  • Geelong v Sydney: 1.4% o83.5 $1.90

  • Port Adelaide v Gold Coast: 1.2% o80.5 $1.87

  • Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn: 2.7% o70.5 $1.87

UPDATE 1:40PM FRIDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Richmond v Essendon: 1.8% o72.5 $1.90

AFLW 2025 - Round 3

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Round 3 of the AFLW looks a lot less competitive than Round 2, with the early markets for three games suggesting that their final game margin will be under two goals, two more games expected to finish with a margin in the two to four goal range, and the remaining four games expected to finish with a margin of over four goals.

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which includes just a single underdog win (Sydney).

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is 20.8 points, while WoSHBODS’ is 25.4 points per game.

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AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 2

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This year’s post Round 2 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

Also, note that these are early-season estimates and are therefore likely to have large standard errors associated with them. I expect them to change significantly over the next few weeks.

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 95% chances of Top 4; roughly 60% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 85% chances of Top 4; roughly 25% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Hawthorn, Brisbane, and Sydney: about 90-95% chance of being finalists; around 45-65% chances of Top 4; roughly 4-8% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Adelaide: about 80% chance of being finalists; around 25% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Geelong and Essendon: 45-50% chances of being finalists; around 5-10% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, Carlton, and St Kilda: 25-30% chances of being finalists; around 1-3% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Port Adelaide and West Coast: around 10-15% chance of being finalists; <1-1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  8. Collingwood, Richmond, and GWS: around 2-3% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  9. Gold Coast: <1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

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AFLW 2025 - Round 2

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Round 2 of the AFLW looks a little less competitive than Round 1, with only two of the early markets suggesting that a final game margin will be under about two goals, six games expected to finish with a margin in the two to three goal range, one game expected to finish with a margin just over three goals, and the final remaining game expected to finish with a margin of about five-and-a-half goals.

Below are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which includes just a single underdog win (GWS), but a distribution of expected margins generally nearer zero:

  • Under 2 goals: 5 games

  • From 2 to under 4 goals: 2 games

  • Over 4 goals: 2 games

The TAB bookmaker’s average expected victory margin is 15.4 points, while WoSHBODS’ is 13.6 points.

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AFLW 2025 - Simulations After Round 1

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This year’s post Round 1 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

Also, note that these are early-season estimates and are therefore likely to have large standard errors associated with them. I expect them to change significantly over the next few weeks.

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 90% chances of Top 4; roughly 50% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Hawthorn, Melbourne, and Brisbane: 80-85% chance of being finalists; around 45-60% chances of Top 4; roughly 5-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. St Kilda, Fremantle, Geelong, and Adelaide: 60-70% chances of being finalists; around 25-30% chances of Top 4; roughly 1-5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Sydney and Essendon: 45-50% chances of being finalists; around 15% chances of Top 4; roughly 1-2% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Port Adelaide, Carlton, and Richmond: around 20-30% chance of being finalists; 5% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. West Coast, GWS, Gold Coast, and Western Bulldogs: around 10% chance of being finalists; around 1-2% chances of Top 4; roughly <1% chances of being Minor Premier

  7. Collingwood: around 1% chance of being finalists; <1% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

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AFLW 2025 - Round 1 - Unders/Overs

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UPDATE 12:35PM SUNDAY

After waiting - fruitlessly - for Sportsbet to frame Totals markets for today’s games, WoSHBODS has taken:

  • Brisbane v Hawthorn: 3.8% u90.5 $1.87

  • St Kilda v Adelaide: 2.6% u80.5 $1.87

A third, overs, bet on the Port Adelaide v Fremantle game has been passed due to forecast rain.

UPDATE 12:30PM SATURDAY

WoSHBODS has taken:

  • GWS v Essendon: 2.4% u81.5 $1.85

  • Western Bulldogs v Melbourne: 0.3% u75.5 $1.87

UPDATE 1PM FRIDAY

Both bookmakers are setting the Total at 80.5 tonight. WoSHBODS has no interest.

UPDATE 4:30PM THURSDAY

The TAB has now posted Totals markets for both of tonight’s games, and WoSHBODS, as predicted has preferred Sportsbet, but for minimal amounts. It has:

  • Carlton v Collingwood: 0.1% u75.5 $1.85

  • West Coast v Gold Coast: 0.1% u77.5 $1.85

UPDATE 4PM THURSDAY

At this point, the TAB has not posted any Totals markets, and Sportsbet has posted just the two for tonight’s games. It’s likely WoSHBODS will be making very small unders wagers on both games, but I’ll be waiting until closer to game time to commit, hoping that the TAB might have something to offer as well.

AFLW 2025 - Round 1

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Round 1 of the AFLW looks fairly competitive, with only two of the early markets suggesting that a game margin will exceed about two goals, and in neither of those is it expected to exceed three-and-a-half goals.

Here are WoSHBODS’ thoughts about the nine games of the round, which include forecast wins by three away teams and by two underdogs (Richmond by 9 points, and Fremantle, narrowly)

The distribution of WoSHBODS expected margins is as follows:

  • Under 2 goals: 6 games

  • From 2 to under 4 goals: 3 games

  • Over 4 goals: 0 games

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AFLW 2025 - Simulations Before Round 1

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This year’s pre Round 1 simulations suggest that the teams can be roughly grouped as below:

For anyone who is curious about the precise methodology I’ve employed, see this blog post over on the General Probability and Statistics journal

Also, note that these are pre-season estimates and are therefore likely to have large standard errors associated with them. I expect them to change significantly over the next few weeks.

  1. North Melbourne: virtually certain of being finalists; around 80% chances of Top 4; roughly 40% chances of being Minor Premier

  2. Brisbane, Adelaide, and Hawthorn: 75-85% chance of being finalists; around 45-55% chances of Top 4; roughly 10-15% chances of being Minor Premier

  3. Melbourne and Geelong: 60-70% chances of being finalists; around 25-35% chances of Top 4; roughly 5% chances of being Minor Premier

  4. Fremantle, Port Adelaide, and Richmond: around 45-50% chance of being finalists; 15-20% chances of Top 4; 2-3% chances of being Minor Premier

  5. Essendon, St Kilda, Sydney, and GWS: around 25-35% chance of being finalists; around 5-10% chances of Top 4; roughly <1-1% chances of being Minor Premier

  6. Western Bulldogs, Gold Coast, West Coast, Carlton, and Collingwood: around 10-15% chance of being finalists; around 1-4% chances of Top 4; <1% chances of being Minor Premier

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AFLW 2024 - Round 14 Results - A Tiny Bit of Icing

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WoSHBODS tipped the winner of the Grand Final, and recorded a Margin MAE of just under 11.5 points per game and a Totals MAE of 28.2 points per game.

That took its season-long figures to 77.5 from 108 (72%) for accuracy, 19.1 for Margin MAE, and 17.5 for Totals MAE, which is roughly as good as the bookmakers on accuracy, better than them on Margin MAE, and a little worse on Total MAE (and on LPS)..

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AFLW 2024 - Round 13 Results - A Good and Proper Profit

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WoSHBODS tipped both winners in Week 3 of the Finals, although you could argue that it tipped only one if you took more notice of its probability estimates than its margin forecasts.

It also recorded a Margin MAE of 17.2 points per game and a Totals MAE of 17.4 points per game.

Those numbers took its season-long figures to 76.5 from 107 (72%) for accuracy, 19.2 for Margin MAE, and 17.4 for Totals MAE.

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AFLW 2024 - Simulations After Round 12

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In this blog we’ll update our simulations for what we saw in Week 2 of the Finals and project the outcomes for the remainder of the Finals series.

The methodology we’ll use is the same one that I’ve used for the men’s competition, which involves, in each replicate, simulating the next upcoming round using the teams’ current Offensive and Defensive Ratings and Venue Performance Values, updating those Ratings and Values as we would if the results were actual results, and then do the same for each subsequent home-and-away round and each week of the Finals.

Each replicate is, therefore, a simulated end to the current season, and we’ll do this for 10,000 replicates.

The results this week are as shown below.

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