21 Again

Tonight I thought I'd wait a little longer to see if TAB Sportsbet would post the final 2 line markets before I wrote this blog but, as of a little after 8pm, they've not.

The two line markets awaited are those for the Carlton v Collingwood game, on which I don't expect we'll have a wager, and for the Fremantle v West Coast game, on which I expect we will. This week's Ready Reckoner is based on us having 5% of the Line Redux Fund on Freo, probably giving 9.5 points start. I'll confirm this as soon as I can.

Including the assumed Dockers wager, we'll again have 21 wagers this weekend, though Chi-squared's marginally more temperate behaviour means that Investors will have, in aggregate, less money at risk.

New Heritage has 6 wagers totalling about 55.5% of the Fund, the largest being a 12.7% wager on the Lions at $1.13. The other 5 wagers are each sized 9.2% or larger and are on favourites, the longest priced of which is Fremantle at $1.60.

Prudence also has 6 wagers, totalling almost a quarter of the Fund, and also has its largest wager - 6% in its case - on the Lions. Its most speculative wager though is on the Dees and is for 3.1% at $2.40. (The Dees have blown significantly since we placed this bet, which is rarely a happy portent.)

Chi-squared has found 4 wagers totalling a little over 25% of the Fund. It too fancies the Dees - if 14.6% can rightly be labelled merely a fancy. Its 3 other wagers are on favourites.

Hope has just 2 bets this weekend, 4.9% on the Dees at the aforementioned $2.40, and 1% on the Crows at $1.50.

Line Redux has 3 bets (including the prospective Freo wager), all on teams giving start.

Every Fund has wagered something on the Crows this weekend, making them only the second team this year - the other being Sydney - to earn such unamimous wagering support. There's some proverb about eggs and baskets that I can only vaguely recall at this point.

Here then is the weekend's Ready Reckoner:

It's a dark weekend indeed when your fate is in the hands of the Dees, especially when draft picks are at stake.

Next, let's turn to tipping, where we have:

• Carlton 9-4 favourites over Collingwood. Though the Pies have scant support, 3 of their 4 supporters come from amongst our top 5 tipsters in the form of BKB, CTL and Silhouette. ELO tips Carlton, but only by 2 points, making this its Game of the Round.
• Geelong 8-5 favourites over the Hawks. Amongst our tipping elite, only Shadow is on the Hawks. Chi's tipping a Cats victory, but only by 3 points, making this his (only!) Game of the Round.
• Fremantle 7-6 favourites over the Eagles, with CTL, Shadow and Silhouette all tipping the Eagles.
• Brisbane unanimous favourites over the Roos.
• St Kilda, perhaps surprisingly, unanimous favourites over the Dogs.
• Melbourne 7-6 favourites over Sydney, with BKB and CTL the only credentialled tipsters foretelling a Swans victory.
• Essendon 10-3 favourites over the Tigers. STM II stands alone amongst its peers in tipping the Tigers.
• Port Adelaide 7-6 favourites over the Crows, with half of the Crows' support coming from CTL, BKB and Silhouette.

On line betting, assuming Freo give 9.5 points start and Carlton receive 6.5 points start (which, as I type this, is no certainty):

• Chi's on Collingwood, Hawthorn, Fremantle, the Kangaroos, St Kilda, Melbourne, Richmond and Adelaide
• ELO's on Carlton, Hawthorn, West Coast, the Kangaroos, St Kilda, Melbourne, Essendon and Adelaide

Update on Friday morning: Fremantle line wager is confirmed. We're giving only 8.5 start. Also, as expected, no Carlton line bet. New Round Summary now available for download.

Sometimes, Seven Goals Just Isn't Enough

You might think, if you'd wagers on three teams (albeit outsiders) that led by 8, 7 and 42 points at half time, that at least one of them would take home the biscuits, especially the one that led by 42 points. If you'd thought this over the last weekend, you'd be wrong.

The Dons were the first of the disappointments, leading the Dogs by 8 points at the half only to concede 11 goals in the second half to go down by 33 points. Next came Fremantle, who enjoyed a 7 point buffer at the half and who maintained legitimate hopes until late in the final term only to falter in the wet against the Lions and lose eventually by 15 points.

Then, on Sunday, the Tigers, who led by 7 straight goals (yes, 7) at the half, barely managed to cling on for a draw, which was enough to stop Investors losing a great deal on the game, but wasn't enough to provide them with a profit. In draws, head-to-head wagers pay out at half-price, so teams at prices below $2 pay back less than the amount wagered. Investors had the Tigers at $1.95.

Indeed it was a weekend littered with close finishes for many Investors. The Cats lost on line betting by half a point, Freo won on line betting by two and a half points, and Port won on line betting by a point and a half. Still, most Investors would've swapped those two favourable line betting results for a Tigers head-to-head victory.

In total, New Heritage won 4.5 of 6 wagers and fell 3.3%, Prudence won 4.5 of 7 wagers and fell 4.2%, Hope lost its only bet and fell 5.5%, Chi-squared won 0.5 of 3 wagers and fell a precipitous 33.3%, and Line Redux won 2 of 4 wagers and fell 1%.

As a result, the Recommended Portfolio fell 9.4% to leave it just 4.5% ahead for the season. Other Portfolios fell by between 3.3% and 9.5% to leave them in front for the season by amounts ranging from 7.5% to 35.4%.

On tipping, RYL had the best possible round, landing 7.5 from 8. Silhouette and Shadow bagged 6.5 and 5.5 respectively to jointly lead outright on 93.5 from 128 (73%), 5 tips ahead of BKB on 88.5 from 128 (69%) and a further tip ahead of CTL and STM II on 87.5 from 128 (68%).

Level-stake, home team only, start at Round 6 wagering on the heuristic tipsters has now been profitable for all tipsters except ELO, Chi and HSH. Shadow, Silhouette and STM II are currently up by over 11 units using such a wagering strategy - if only we'd known ...

Chi's and ELO's line betting results were once again poor this weekend, with Chi scoring 3 from 8 and ELO just 2 from 8.

All told, a weekend best forgotten.

Clutch Betting

The English language has many wondrous, often euphonious collective nouns ready to serve as descriptors for sets of objects, especially animals. So we have, for example, an exultation of larks, a murder of crows, a gaggle of geese, a cloud of bats, a flutter of butterflies, a cackle of hyenas, a smack of jellyfish, a deceit of lapwing, a richness of martens, a parliament of owls, a watch of nightingales and - a personal favourite - a prickle of porcupines.

English lacks, however, a collective noun for a group of bets, a deficiency I feel needs to be remedied. Accordingly, I'm nominating the word 'clutch' for this purpose.

Its appropriateness can be argued on a number of fronts.

Firstly, the word clutch evokes images of an anxious punter, betting slips gripped tightly in hand, attention riveted on a large screen that's beaming the performance of some two- or four-legged determiner of his or her fate. Surely such a punter can be said to be in the clutch.

The word's also evocative of the notion of 'clutching at straws', a desperate and generally futile exercise, which can seem an especially apposite metaphor some weekends.

Further and more positively, the term 'clutch' already has a sporting pedigree as an honorific applied to the exalted few who can be expected to perform when it matters - hence 'clutch' putter, 'clutch' hitter, 'clutch' pitcher and, more generally, 'clutch' player.

Clutch it is then.

This weekend Investors most certainly face a clutch of bets, 21 in all for the second weekend in a row, and 8 of them on underdogs priced as high as $3.

Chi-squared's own clutch is the scariest. Three bets totalling over 44% of the Fund, the two largest on Essendon and Fremantle both at $3 and both facing teams that are fighting for top 8 and possible top 4 positions. The remaining bet is on Richmond, also the underdogs, but they're only at $1.95 and the bet is relatively small.

New Heritage is also putting a large proportion of the Fund at risk - just under 63% of the Fund on 6 teams, all of them favourites and all but one of them home teams. The largest wager is just over 13% of the Fund on Geelong at what others might call an unbackable $1.04. The smallest wager is just over 2% on the Roos at $1.80 away to the Tigers.

Prudence, as has been its habit for most of the season, has this week nibbled on a smorgasbord of teams rather than gorging on just a few. It has 7 bets totalling a little over 30% of the Fund, 2 of them on underdogs and including a surprising 2% wager on the Dons at $3. The largest wager is for a trifle under 7% of the Fund on the Cats at $1.04.

Line Redux has four wagers representing 20% of the Fund. Two of these wagers are on favourites (Geelong and Port Adelaide) and the other 2 are on underdogs (Essendon and Fremantle).

(There is still one line market to be posted - that for the Tigers v Roos clash - but I don't expect we'll have a bet in it.)

Hope, whose selectivity has been its hallmark this season, has only 1 bet this week, its 20th of the season and its 6th on the Dons. It has 5.5% of the Fund on them at $3.

Together these bets yield the following Ready Reckoner:

The entire tenor of the weekend will be established late on Friday night for all Investors except MIN#017, though even a Dons win won't make the weekend entirely pot-hole resistant.

Next we move to tipping where we find:

• Essendon are 8-5 favourites over the Dogs. Amongst our top 5 tipsters, Silhouette, BKB and CTL have sided with the Dogs, while Shadow and STM II (along with a cadre of anxious MAFL Investors and a badly-bred Pomeranian) are riding the Don train. Chi could definitely be more convincing in his Dondom - he has them as only 1 point winners making this game one of his two Games of the Round.
• Carlton are unanimous favourites over the suddenly unpopular Swans.
• Geelong are 8-5 favourites over the Dees, the narrowness of their favouritism due mostly to the shortness of the memories of many of our heuristic-based tipsters. Amongst the cream of these tipsters, only Shadow and STM II are lining up behind the Dees in what will surely be the shortest of queues.
• Collingwood are 8-5 favourites over the Hawks. Once again it's only Shadow and STM II from the top 5 tipsters who are supporting the underdogs.
• Brisbane are 11-2 favourites over Fremantle, the sole support for the Dockers coming from HSH and Chi, who has this as his second and final Game of the Round.
• Port Adelaide are unanimous favourites over the Eagles.
• The Roos are 8-5 favourites over Richmond. The Tigers' following amongst our top tipsters is thin: only STM II is in their corner. ELO is another Tigers tipper, though only by 6 points, making this its Game of the Round.
• St Kilda are 11-2 favourites over the Crows, with EI I and II the only ornithologists amongst the MAFL tipsters.

On line betting, ELO will surely improve on its 0 from 8 record last weekend, though I'm not as certain that Chi will better his 3 from 8 performance. This week:

• Chi's on: Essendon, Sydney, Melbourne, Collingwood, Fremantle, West Coast, Richmond and Adelaide.
• ELO's on: Essendon, Sydney, Geelong, Collingwood, Brisbane Lions, West Coast, Richmond and St Kilda.

On Line Betting this year teams receiving start have fared much better than those giving it. The current tally is 69-51 in favour of the teams receiving start. The teams with the best records when receiving start are Carlton (4-0), St Kilda (3-0), Brisbane (4-1), and West Coast (8-3). Those with the poorest records when giving start are Fremantle (0-4), West Coast (0-4), Hawthorn (1-11), Port Adelaide (3-6), Adelaide (2-4), Sydney (2-4), Geelong (6-9) and Carlton (4-7).

One last statistic before I go. Which teams do you think have the best and worst win-loss records this year in games that have been decided by fewer than 12 points?

Three teams have perfect records: Essendon (2-0), St Kilda (2-0) and Adelaide (1-0). The Hawks (3-1) also have a strongly positive record. The worst, or perhaps the unluckiest, team in these situations has been Carlton (1-4), followed by 5 teams - Collingwood, Port Adelaide, Richmond, West Coast and the Western Bulldogs - all with 1-2 records.

No team has failed to register at least one result where the margin of victory or defeat has been 11 points or fewer.

Favourites Stumble While (Most) Investors Profit

When you lose your first 9 wagers of the weekend and when you've a strategy built around favourites and half of them lose, you're not really entitled to expect to profit from such a weekend, especially when such profit is largely dependent on the team that's at the foot of the ladder toppling a team vying for a spot in the finals and the major wager on that team is one that's been placed by a canine whose to-do list comprises sleep, eat and beg for pats in varying orders.

So, it's with some relief that I report that the Recommended Portfolio and all but one Investor finished in the black this weekend.

Three Funds declined: New Heritage, which won 3 of 5 bets but declined by just under 10%; Prudence, which landed 4 from 6 bets but fell by 1%; and Line Redux, which was right only 1 time in 3 and consequently fell 5.5%. The two successful funds were Hope, which was right 2 times in 3 and rose almost 8%, and Chi-squared, which picked 2 from 4 but rose almost 19%, ensuring that Chi gets fed for another week.

In total that left the Recommended Fund up about another 1.5% and other portfolios up by amounts ranging from 1% to 8%, the only exception being the portfolio of MIN #017, which is down by almost 10% this week though still up almost 35% across the season.

On tipping, Shadow led the way with 6 from 8, propelling it to outright lead on 88 from 120 (73%), now one tip ahead of Silhouette in 2nd and a remarkable 6 tips ahead of BKB on 82 in 4th. Never have the bookies seemed so fallible.

On level-stake, home team only, starting in Round 6 wagering (one day I'll come up with a neat shorthand for that), all but one tipster, ELO, remain profitable.

Indeed, ELO posted something of a record this weekend, landing no line bets at all, three fewer than even Chi managed. Still, line betting based on ELO margin predictions would have been profitable across the entire season, albeit now only by 2.57 units. ELO still has an impressive MAPE of 28.2 points per game, just 0.3 points behind BKB and 2.3 points ahead of Chi.

Fremantle's capitulation to the Crows on Saturday shouldn't go unremarked. Freo recorded just 8 scoring shots (7 of them behinds) to Adelaide's 35, meaning that Freo registered only 19% of the scoring shots in the same. In the entire history of VFL/AFL, spanning more than 13,500 games, only 76 teams have kicked a smaller proportion of scoring shots, and only 3 have done so in the seasons from 1980 onwards. Oddly enough, the most recent of these was this season - in Round 5 when Geelong thumped the Lions 18.18 to 5.3. Prior to that, you need to hark back to Round 13 of 1996 when Geelong beat Fitzroy 25.16 to 6.3. Before that you need to return to Round 14 of 1981 when a wayward Carlton thumped Footscray 15.25 to 5.4. So, truly an historic occasion, though not one you'd expect Dockers fans to commit to memory.

A Blackjack of Wagers

What is it they say again about old dogs and new tricks?

Buoyed - or perhaps blinded - by recent successes, the Funds have launched a record-equalling 21-bet salvo at the very much suspecting TAB Sportsbet bookie, amongst these wagers another fur-raiser from Chi. He's made 4 wagers this week totalling about 27.5% of the Fund, 3 of them on favourites, but the fourth on Melbourne at $2.80. Such is his faith on the Dees' going back-to-back he's put 16% of the Fund at risk.

Chi's faith in the Dees is mirrored, though with considerably less conviction, by Prudence and Hope, as odd a pairing in wagering as they are in life. Prudence has about 1.5% on the Dees as one of its 6 wagers for the weekend, which total around 20% of the Fund. Its other wagers are on teams ranging in price from $1.12 (Adelaide, 5.6%) to $1.60 (Sydney 3.3%).

Hope has 5.3% on the Dees and two other wagers: 2% on Sydney at $1.60, and 0.3% on Hawthorn at $1.45. In total Hope has put about 7.5% of the Fund at risk.

New Heritage has nothing on the Dees but has 54% of the Fund on 5 other teams. The largest wager is 12.7% on Adelaide at $1.12 and the most improbable is 9.2% on Sydney at $1.60. New Heritage's aggregate wagering of 54% in this round is its third-highest aggregate for the season, trailing only the 64% of Round 13 and the 60% of Round 7.

Line Redux has found 3 acceptable risks for the weekend: the Dogs giving the Pies 12.5 points start, Sydney giving Essendon 8.5 points start, and West Coast receiving 32.5 points start from the Saints.

Looking at the wagers across the Funds I note that Sydney, for the second time this season, finds itself with a wager from every Fund. No other team has enjoyed such unanimous support even once, let alone twice, from our 5 Funds this season.

In total, those Investors with the Recommended Portfolio have about 24% of their Initial Funds at risk, which is the second highest aggregate this season, behind only the proportion that was at risk in Round 13, which was 0.6% higher.

Here's the week's Ready Reckoner:

On tipping:

• The Dogs are 12-1 favourites over the Pies, with FTS the only Pie-eyed tipster.
• Sydney are 8-5 favourites over the Dons, though the Dons have the support of 4 of our top 5 tipsters, excluding only BKB. ELO is tipping an 11-point Sydney win and has this as its Game of the Round.
• Carlton are unanimous favourites over the Tigers.
• Geelong are 12-1 favourites over the Lions. HSH, as has often been the case this season, finds itself the lone tipster supporting the underdogs. Chi, though siding with the Cats, predicts only a 5-point margin making this one of his two Games of the Round [he's trying to cut back to just a couple a week].
• Adelaide are unanimous favourites over Fremantle.
• Hawthorn are 11-2 favourites over the Roos. The Roos' 2 supporters include the highly-ranked STM II and the lesser-ranked EI I.
• Port Adelaide are 9-4 favourites over the Dees. Amongst the Dee-favourers are Shadow and STM II. Chi also tips the Dees but by only 5 points, making this his Alternative Game of the Round.
• St Kilda are 12-1 favourites over West Coast and it's once again HSH that is the outlier.

On line betting:

• Chi favours: the Dogs, Sydney, Carlton, Brisbane, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Melbourne and West Coast
• ELO favours: the Dogs, Sydney, Carlton, Geelong, Fremantle, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide and St Kilda

I was reviewing the extended ladder (which can be downloaded from the MAFL Stats site each week) and noticed how strong the Saints' defence has been this season. While their attack has been more than acceptable - they rank 3rd overall in terms of points scored - their defence has been 250 points better than any other team in the league. That's almost 3 goals better per game.

Adelaide, 5th on the ladder, are another team whose success has been based more on defence than attack. They're ranked 9th on Points For and 4th on Points Against. Carlton, who sit 7th on the ladder, have instead relied on attack. The opposite of the Crows, the Blues are ranked 4th on Points For and 9th on Points Against.

In general, defence has had a larger bearing on teams' competition points so far this season than has attack, as evidenced by the slightly higher (in absolute terms) correlation between Competition Points and Points Against (-0.92) than between Competition Points and Points For (+0.85). Put another way, variation in Points Against explains about 12% more (ie 0.92 squared vs 0.85 squared) of the variation in Competition Points than does Points For.

More Green Shoots

This weekend we learned a great deal.

We learned - if we didn't already know - that the Saints are genuine contenders for the flag this year and aren't at all intimidated by the Cats' incredible win-loss record since 2007. We learned that it is possible to make money without relying on occasional improbable victories by rank outsiders and that last weekend's profit wasn't merely a statistical anomaly. We learned that the Hawks aren't good enough to go back-to-back and that the Dees aren't yet focussed on priority draft picks. And we learned that dogs of dubious breeding shouldn't be entrusted with large sums of cash.

Still, it was another glorious weekend's wagering. Combined, across this weekend and last, Investors have landed 31 winners from 33 bets, missing only a line bet on the Cats last weekend and a highly speculative head-to-head bet on the Tigers at $3.75 this weekend. Even then, neither of these bets lost by more than 3 goals.

New Heritage has so far this season won 38 from 49 bets and is up about 45%. Prudence has won 35 from 44 bets and is up about 19%. Hope, inactive this week, has won 7 from 16 bets across the season and is up by about 33%. Line Redux has won 20 from 39 bets and is finally back in the black, although only by about 1%. Chi-squared is what could politely be called the 'outlier'. It's won 7 from 14 bets and is down by around 33%, over one-half of that loss attributable to this weekend's (obvious in hindsight) folly.

For most Investors, the weekend's successes added between about 8c and 9c to their share price. The two exceptions were MIN #002, who was betless this weekend and so marked time, and MIN #017, whose Heritage-only portfolio leapt over 27c.

These increases leave most Investors up by between about 12% and 15% on the season, the exceptions yet again being MIN #002, who's up 33%, and MIN #017, who's up nearly 45%.

Here's a chart showing each Investor's triumphal march:

On tipping, this week's best performance was HSH's 7 from 8. Most other top tipsters scored 6 from 8, though BKB managed just 5, dropping it into joint 3rd place with STM II on 78 from 112 (70%). Shadow and Silhouette remain joint leaders, now on 82 from 112 (73%). CTL fills out the top 5 places with 76 from 112 (68%).

Only one tipster, ELO, is now showing a loss on level-stake, home team only wagering, commencing in Round 6. Applying this same wagering strategy to the tips of our top 3 tipsters would have yielded profits of over 11 units, which represents an ROI of over 10%.

Whilst ELO might not be performing well on head-to-head wagering, it continues to excel on line betting, recording 6 from 8 this weekend to move to 65 and 47 for the season and a profit to level-staking of 10.57 units. Chi had a good line-betting week too, picking 7 from 8 this week, but he's still at less than 50% (he's 54 and 58) for the season.

In running down the Dockers in the final term on Sunday night, Carlton became only the 8th team this season to come from behind at three-quarter time to win and the 1st team to do so when trailing by 2 goals or more at the last change.

As I've commented before, this has not been a season for winning after trailing. About 68% of teams who've led at the first change (ignoring games that were tied at this change) have gone on to win. This is about 1% point higher than the all-time average. Teams leading at the half (again ignoring games tied at the half) have won 81% of the time, up 2% points on the all-time average, and teams leading at the final change (ignoring games tied at this point) have won 93% of the time, up a startling 7% points on the all-time average.

This latter statistic is not, as you might suspect, the result of teams tending to lead by more at the final change this season compared to previous seasons. In fact, even teams with quite slender leads have been hanging on to win at historically high rates. For example, teams leading by between 6 and 11 points have won 85% of the time (up 13% points on the all-time average), and those leading by between 12 and 17 points have won 100% of the time (up 18% points on the all-time average).

The only three-quarter time lead range that has proved more vulnerable this season than has been the case historically is a lead of between 1 and 5 points, which has been defended only 55% of the time this season, 3% points under the all-time average.

Chi Returns As Hope Fades

Chi, as a dog (which he is, so I guess that's a little redundant, but bear with me) is prone to inexplicable bursts of canine euphoria during which times he's apt to bound around like a dog a fraction of his age.

Whatever it is that transports him into these displays of friskiness clearly struck sometime this week just as he was contemplating his weekly wagers. Why else would he have decided to put 17.7% of the Fund on the Tigers at $3.75? His other wager is a much more sedate one: 4.6% of the Fund on the Pies at $1.55.

Prudence has sipped from the same chalice - dog slobber and all - as evidenced by its two most extreme wagers of 1.9% on St Kilda at $2.35, and 1.5% on the Dees at $2.10. As well as these it has three other wagers on teams at prices ranging from $1.30 to $1.55, the largest on being 4.9% on the Swans at $1.30.

New Heritage has also found a lot to like, with wagers in all but the Richmond v Adelaide game. These wagers include almost 12% of the Fund risked on teams priced above $2: Melbourne (5.4% @ $2.10), Port (3.1% @ $2.35) and St Kilda (3.1% @ $2.35). The four other bets range in size from 11.4% on Sydney @ $1.30 to a neither-here-nor-there 0.1% on Carlton @ $1.55.

Line Redux, the only other active Fund this weekend as we are again Hope-less, has found four wagers, three on teams receiving start and one on the Pies, giving start.

Together these produce a Ready Reckoner that looks a lot like this:

Unusually, due mainly to Chi's Richmond wager, all Investors except MIN #017 have roughly equal upside and downside risk this weekend.

On tipping we have:

• Collingwood the unanimous favourites over the Dons.
• West Coast 9-4 favourites over the Dees. Amongst the top six tipsters, the Dees have Shadow, Silhouette and STM II as supporters and the Eagles have BKB, ELO and CTL. Chi has this as one of his four - yes, four - one point margin predictions and hence Games of the Round.
• Brisbane are 12-1 favourites over Port. Only HSH is tipping Port.
• Adelaide are 12-1 favourites over the Tigers. Chi is the sole Tigers fan (hence the wager) but here too is prediction a single point margin making this another of his Games of the Round.
• The Dogs and unanimous favourites over the Hawks.
• Sydney are 8-5 favourites over the Roos. The top six tipsters are split as for the Eagles v Dees clash. This time Shadow, Silhouette and STM II are siding with the Roos and BKB, ELO and CTL are on the Swans.
• St Kilda are 10-3 favourites over the Cats. Geelong have, amongst the top six tipsters, only BKB and ELO in their corner. Chi and ELO are tipping just one point margins and so have this as a/the Game of the Round.
• Carlton are 11-2 favourites over Freo. Only HSH and EI II have tipped Fremantle. Chi though has this as another one pointer, which makes this his fourth and final Game of the Round.

So close are many of the games expected to be this weekend, anyone who tips the card deserves double points in their tipping competition. One measure of this expected closeness is the average points start per game on line betting.This week that statistic is 14.6 points per game, more than two points lower than the next-lowest this season, which was 16.9 points per game in Round 5.

Another measure is the combined probability of all underdogs winning in the round. The probability of that happening this week is about 3,800 to 1, which is roughly 12 surprisal bits. Previously, the lowest this has been this season was about 7,950 to 1, or approximately 13 surprisal bits, which it was in Round 1. In other words, the probability of all 8 underdogs winning this week is roughly twice what it's been for any other round this season.

For Line Betting:

• Chi's on Collingwood, Melbourne, Port, Richmond, the Dogs, the Roos, the Saints and Fremantle.
• ELO agrees except for swapping West Coast in for Melbourne.

Almost Perfect

Wagering weekends don't come much sweeter than this last one. Only Geelong's lack of killer instinct - which surely must be troubling the Cats' coaches and fans alike - spoiled a 15 wins from 15 wagers result.

Still, 14 from 15 was good enough to allow all Investors to record solid gains for the week in amounts ranging from about 5% to 8.5%. On the back of these gains the Recommended Portfolio is now up by over 4% and all other Portfolios are up by between 6% and 33%.

At the Fund level, Hope rose by the largest percentage, climbing 8.5% on the strength of its sole wager on the Dons. The Dons have now contributed more than 34c worth of gains to the Hope Fund, the result of 3 wins from 5 wagers. Overall, the Hope Fund now has a 7 and 9 record.

The next highest increase was recorded by Prudence, whose 7% increase this week thanks to 6 successful wagers, was its greatest single-week increase this season. Prudence now has a 5 from 5 record with St Kilda, a 3 from 3 record with Geelong, and a 30 from 39 record overall.

New Heritage bagged 5 from 5 and jumped 6.3%. It now has perfect records with Geelong (3 from 3), St Kilda (5 from 5), Collingwood (3 from 3), and the Lions (3 from 3). Its season-long record stands at 31 from 42.

The only other active Fund this weekend was the Line Redux Fund, which managed 2 wins from 3 thus registering only its third profitable round in the last 10. It now stands at 16 from 35 for the season.

On tipping, Silhouette and Shadow each scored 7 from 8, moving them to 76 from 104 (73%) for the season, one further tip clear of BKB, whose 6 from 8 left it on 73 from 104 (70%). STM II also scored 7 from 8 and is now on 72 from 104 (69%). Only one tipster picked all 8 winners this weekend: HSH, who now sits on 60 from 104 (58%). No tipster fared worse than 6 from 8.

All that fine tipping has lifted the wagering returns from level-staking our tipsters' tips. Nine tipsters are now showing a profit on level-stake, home-team only wagering, commencing in Round 6, and four of those are also showing a profit on level-stake, season-long wagering.

Moving to line betting, Chi and ELO each tipped 5 from 8 this weekend, which leaves ELO at 59 from 104 for the season and Chi at 47 from 104. Level-stake wagering on ELO line bets is now showing a +7.17 unit return for the season.

Lastly, an update on the Mean Absolute Prediction Error metric. Chi's MAPE is currently 30.9 points per game while ELO's is an exceptional 27.9 points per game, only narrowly trailing BKB's 27.7 points per game.

No Triskaidekaphobia Here

Clearly the Funds aren't superstitious. Why else would they, collectively, choose Round 13 as the round in which to - for most Investors - make their largest outlay?

Foremost for profligacy amongst the Funds is the New Heritage Fund, which this week has found five wagers totalling approximately 64% of Initial Funds at prices ranging from $1.04 (for the Cats) to $1.22 (for Adelaide). So, mercifully, not much in terms of risk for each bet, but a considerable amount in terms of total risk. Indeed, this is the largest amount that the Heritage Fund has wagered in any single round this season.

Prudence, too, has set a record for most Initial Funds at risk this week. It's wagered about 31% of the Fund on six wagers, five of them on the same teams as the New Heritage Fund, but the sixth on West Coast at - wait for it - $3. Since when does Prudence wager on 2/1 longshots?

The Hope Fund is a little more restrained, making just a single wager on Essendon at $2.65 for a smidgeon over 5% of the Fund.

Also somewhat restrained is the Line Redux Fund with 3 wagers this week totalling 15% of the Fund. Two of these wagers are on short-priced favourites offering 44.5 (Brisbane) and 47.5 (Geelong) points, and the third is on the Roos receiving 36.5 points.

Coyest of all is the Chi-squared Fund, which has found nothing to wager on this week.

As I hinted at earlier, combined these wagers represent the largest single-round outlay for all Investors except MIN #002. The table below provides detail about the outlay and return for each Investor profile for each round.

On then to this week's Ready Reckoner:

So, for those with the Recommended Portfolio and for MIN #001 and MIN #015, the Geelong v Port clash is that contest representing the largest potential swing between the best and worst results. For this same group of Investors, the Brisbane v Melbourne matchup represents the next largest swing.

(This week the Ready Reckoner includes information about the best- and worst-possible outcomes for each Investor across the weekend. For example, a perfect set of eight results for those with the Recommended Portfolio would lead to about a 7% gain and, by contrast, a anti-perfect set of eight result would lead to just over a 24% drop.)

To tipping:

• Essendon, the market underdogs, are 9-4 favourites over the Blues. Amongst our best tipsters, BKB, ELO and CTL are all siding with the Blues, while Silhouette, Shadow and STM II are with the Dons. ELO, though coming down in favour of the Blues, has them winning by just 2 points, making this its Game of the Round.
• Collingwood are unanimous favourites over Freo.
• Adelaide are unanimous favourites over the Swans.
• Brisbane, continuing the trend, are unanimous favourites over the Dees.
• Hawthorn are 11-2 favourites over the Eagles. Our two least-performed tipsters in HSH and EI I are the Eagles' only friends.
• Geelong, as is custom, are unanimous favourites over Port.
• The Dogs are the round's fifth unanimous favourites, they over the Roos. Chi, however, has the Dogs winning by just 4 points and therefore has this as his Game of the Round.
• St Kilda are 12-1 favourites over Richmond, the Tiger's sole supporter being EI I, which this year is just about as close to no support at all as it's possible to have.

The only game with any significant implications for our top tipsters is, therefore, Friday nights Dons v Blues clash.

On Line Betting this week, Chi's with all the teams receiving start. ELO differs only in that it's predicting the joint competition leaders in the Cats and the Saints to cover the spread.

Swans Turn Into Ugly Ducklings

Two of the three teams did what Investors asked of them this weekend, but Sydney's failure to be amongst this group meant another small loss for most this weekend. This leaves the Recommended Portfolio down about 1% on the season and all other Investors up by amounts ranging from 0.9% (MIN #015) to 24.6% (MIN #002).

At this point in the season New Heritage is up about 11%, Prudence is up about 3.5%, Hope is up almost 25%, Chi-squared is down about 17.5%, and the Line Redux Fund is down about 21%.

On tipping, Silhouette and Shadow continue to perform well and jointly lead our tipping competition, two tips clear of BKB and four tips clear of STM II, who've leaped into fourth thanks to an 8 from 8 performance this round. Over the past 3 rounds STM II has scored 21 from 24.

On level-stake, home-team-only wagering, commencing in Round 6, we still have five tipsters showing a profit: Shadow, Silhouette, BKB, STM II and EI II. Three of these tipsters - Silhouette, Shadow and STM II - are also showing a profit on season-long wagering.

ELO performed well again this round on line betting, picking up 6 from 8 to go to 54 and 42 for the season, which is good enough for a 5.67 unit profit on level-stake wagering across the season. Chi managed just 4 from 8 and is now 42 and 54 for the season.

A Trio to Finish

Round 12 continues this weekend, with just three games to complete the formalities.

The New Heritage Fund has two wagers across the weekend totalling around 19% of the Fund. By a considerable margin the larger wager is at $1.25 on the Dons, a team with which New Heritage has had a barely profitable season. The other wager at a generous $1.90 on Sydney, a team which has been responsible for a 12c gain in the New Heritage Fund price (and for a 5c gain in the Prudence Fund).

Prudence has two wagers too, and they're also on the Dons and the Swans. Together, they total about 6% of the Fund.

Line Redux has just one wager, on Freo with 45.5 points start playing the Cats, though there might be another wager on Sydney when their line market opens for betting. This is the Line Redux Fund's first wager on Fremantle this season.

Chi-squared and Hope complete a quiet round for them both, with neither of them venturing a wager this weekend. Between them, they've mustered on a single bet across the entire round. Earlier in the week Chi-squared was contemplating a wager on the Swans, but it went off this idea when the Pies shortened to equal favouritism. The Chi-squared Fund is very sensitive to price movements around the $1.85-$1.95 range.

Here's this week's Ready Reckoner (which I'll update if the Sydney line bet eventuates, so please have another look before the weekend).

(Thursday night update: no line bet on Sydney. Even though they're receiving 6.5 points start - and I expected them to be giving it - they're only at $1.75. There's no value in that.)

So it's the Essendon v Melbourne game that has the greatest potential impact on all Investors except for the once-again wagerless MIN#002.

To tipping:

• The Dons are unanimous favourites over the Dees.
• The Pies are 11-2 favourites over Sydney, though one of the Swans' supporters is ELO. Both Chi and ELO have this as their Game of the Half Round. (Note that, since Sydney and Collingwood are equal favourites, BKB goes with CTL and so is on the Pies.)
• Geelong are 12-1 favourites over Freo. Only HSH is opting for the home team.

Finally, on Line Betting:

• Chi's line bets are Melbourne, Sydney and Freo
• ELO's line bets Essendon, Sydney and Freo.

Split Round, Spilt Money

To (mis)use a footballing term: it was a weekend of two halves.

Saturday was wonderful, with the Dogs and the Tigers doing what we'd asked. Sunday was, in equal measure, appalling, due largely to the Hawks' failure to show up for the second half, but capped off by the Roos' inferior aquatic skills against the Crows at Football Baths.

All told, every Investor with a wager in the round so far - which excludes only MIN#002 - has lost money, in amounts ranging from 2.5% to 10.2%. So, at this point, 5 games into the split 12th round, the Recommended Portfolio is under water by about 0.8%. Other portfolios remain profitable, but MIN#001 and MIN#002 are now just a loss or two away from red ink.

On tipping, Silhouette and Shadow are joint leaders on 66, BKB is third on 64, and STM II, with 5 from 5 for the weekend, has moved into fourth on 62.

There's still 3 more games to turn this Round around ...

Five Games; Money on Four

Round 12 in the AFL is a split round this year, so our tipsters and our Funds need only make decisions about 5 contests this week. Only Prudence and New Heritage have expressed any significant enthusiasm for what's on offer; amongst them, the other three Funds have just two wagers.

Prudence, this week's most active Fund, has four wagers totalling around 13.5% of the Fund and spanning teams with prices ranging from $1.15 to $1.55. Its Adelaide wager is its first on them this season. 

New Heritage, the next most active Fund, has three wagers, two of them with substantial downside tied to the fate of the Dogs and the Hawks, and another with substantial upside but relying on the Roos at $5 to overcome the Crows at Footy Park. The Roos wager is New Heritage's first on this team this season.

Chi-squared, feeling a little anxious at last weekend's 14% decline, has ventured just a single wager: a smidge over 4.6% on the Tigers at $1.55. This is Chi-squared's first flutter on the Tigers this year. Excepting Hope, the other Funds have all had bad years punting on Richmond, registering just a solitary profitable bet amongst them from five attempts. Line Redux has been similarly restrained in also opting for only one wager. Its is on Hawthorn giving 15.5 points start to the Lions.

The Hope Fund, a trifle ironically, has found no team worthy of its faith this weekend and so will finish the weekend where it'll start it at +24.6%. 

Here's this week's Ready Reckoner.

For all Investors - bar MIN#002 who is without wager - the two most financially important games are the Hawks v Lions clash and the Bulldogs v Port matchup. These games represent potential swings of around 4-6% for most Investors and around 15% for MIN#017.

Moving then to tipping:

• The Saints are favoured 12-1 over the Blues. HSH is home alone on the Blues. ELO has this game as its Game of the Half Round though it is tipping more than a 2-goal margin.
• The Dogs are unanimous favourites over Port, with Chi and ELO both predicting that the Dogs will cover the 25.5 point spread.
• West Coast are 8-5 favourites over Richmond. Amongst the upper echelon of our tipsters, the Tigers have the support of BKB, ELO and STM II, while Shadow, Silhouette and CTL are siding with the Coast.
• Hawthorn are favoured 9-4 over the Lions, with Silhouette and STM II the only members of the tipping elite jumping on the Lions.
• Adelaide are unanimous favourites over the Roos. Chi has the Crows squeaking home by just 7 points, making this his Game of the Half Round.

Finally, on Line Betting:

• Chi's line bets are 3 mammals, a bird and a colour: Blues, Dogs, Eagles, Lions and Roos.
• ELO's line bets have the same mix of fauna and hue, but swap a crow for an eagle and a tiger for a roo: Blues, Dogs, Tigers, Lions and Crows.

Not Quite What I Was Planning

Okay, I admit it: making money is much more fun than losing it, no matter how tiny and glacially produced that profit is. 

This weekend, most Investors were on the wrong side of a number of narrow wagering losses. First, the Roos collapsed in the final term against the Saints to lose by 46, just a little over a goal more than the 39.5 start we were receiving on line betting. Next, the Lions couldn't quite do enough in the last quarter, despite kicking 7 goals, and wound up losing by just 6 points to the Blues. Then the Dons became only the sixth team this year to surrender a three-quarter time lead in going down to the Crows by 16 points, taking three Funds' money with them. And finally, to complete the weekend's indignities, the Hawks fell just 4.5 points short of covering the spread against the Swans.

All up, we won just 6 of 14 bets. 

The New Heritage Fund fared best, bagging 3 from 3 to give it an impressive 75% win record for the season. Prudence managed just 3 of 5, which gives it a less impressive but still profitable 67% win record for the season. Hope scored 0 from 2 and now has only a 40% win record for the season, but its winners have generally been at long odds, so it too is still in profit. 

More troubling have been the Chi-squared Fund, which recorded 0 from 2 this weekend and now has only a 45% win record, and the Line Redux Fund, which also recorded 0 from 2, leaving it with a win record similar to Chi-squared's. To date, the Line Redux Fund is, however, 2 and 5 on games where the handicap-adjusted margin was less than 2 goals, so I'm feeling a little better-disposed towards this Fund than I might otherwise be. Chi-squared's performance is just a mystery though, to be fair, none of his losses have been by more than 22 points and only one of his wins has been by such a narrow margin.

With so little success, it's not surprising that all Investors except MIN#017 - who's 100% invested in New Heritage - lost money this weekend, all in the 3-5% range. MIN#017 meantime made just over 9% on the strength on New Heritage's perfect weekend. Across the season, all Investors remain in profit, albeit narrowly.

Since we're at the halfway point in the season I thought I'd provide a new chart, this one showing how the profitability of each portfolio has varied by game across the 88 games of the season so far.

On  tipping, Shadow and STM I both tipped the card this week. This moved Shadow to 63 from 88 for the season (which is 71.5%), one clear of Silhouette and a stunning 3 clear of BKB. HSH had a horror week, scoring just 3 to leave it equal last on 49 from 88, which is still a respectable 55.7%.

On level-stake, home-team-only wagering, commencing in Round 6, five tipsters remain in profit: Shadow, Silhouette, BKB (barely), STM II and EI II. 

Finally, looking at line betting performances, ELO notched 5 from 8 this week to leave it with a +2.27 unit profit for the season. Chi managed just 3 from 8 and is losing more than it matters to count.

(Incidentally, this week's blog name is an allusion to SMITH magazine's six-word memoirs which, legend has it, were inspired by Hemingway's response to a challenge to write a story in just 6 words. His answer, "For sale: baby shoes, never worn", is hard to top, but others on the site and in the book such as "I still make coffee for two" also give pause.) 

The Funds Grow A Little More Discerning

A quieter weekend is in prospect for most Investors as we've just 14 bets in total covering only 6 of the 8 contests. As it's a long weekend, there's a Monday game, but it's not one we have any financial interest in.

Across the weekend, we have:

• New Heritage Fund: 3 wagers for about 35% of the Fund. Each wager is about 11 or 12% of the Fund and they're on teams with prices of $1.18, $1.25 and $1.36, so we'll need all 3 to win if this Fund is to return a profit for the weekend.
• Prudence Fund: 5 wagers for about 16.5% of the Fund. Again Prudence has wagers on the same teams as New Heritage, the largest of these on Port at $1.18. The two additional wagers are both small and they're on the Lions and the Dons.
• Hope Fund: 2 wagers for about 5% of the Fund, the more significant of those on the Dons at $1.80.
• Chi-squared Fund: 2 wagers for around 14.5% of the Fund. The larger - almost 10% of the Fund - is on the Dons.
• Line Redux Fund: 2 wagers for 10% of the Fund, 5% on the Roos receiving 39.5 points start playing the Saints, and another 5% on Hawthorn giving Sydney 15.5 points start.

Here's this week's Ready Reckoner. (Fortunately, none of the New Heritage bets are on the away team this week, so we've no instances of bets on both teams head-to-head.)

So, for most Investors it's the Hawks v Sydney game that represents the largest potential swing in terms of the best-case versus the worst-case outcomes. For those with the Recommended Portfolio - and for MIN#001 and MIN#015 - it's the Essendon v Adelaide game that's next most important.

(Note that there's still one line market to come - that for the Essendon v Adelaide game - but we're unlikely to have a line wager on this game.)

Next, tipping:

• The Dogs are favoured 13-0 over the Tigers.
• The Saints are favoured 12-1 over the Roos, with the only support for the Roos coming from HSH.
• Brisbane are 9-4 favourites over the Blues. Silhouette is the only tipster of note siding with the Blues.
• Port are favoured 12-1 over Freo, with only EI I tipping the Dockers. Chi has Port winning by 6 points making this his Game of the Round.
• Adelaide are 7-6 favourites over the Dons. BKB are on the Dons as is ELO but by only 1 point making this its Game of the Round.
• Hawthorn are favoured 9-4 over Sydney. Sydney has CTL on its side, but the remaining form tipsters are all on the Hawks.
• Geelong are favoured 12-1 over the Eagles. Again, HSH finds itself alone on the underdog.
• Collingwood are favoured 12-1 over the Dees and once more its HSH the lone dissenter.

Finally, on Line Betting:

• Chi's line bets are Richmond, Kangaroos, Carlton, Fremantle, Essendon, Hawthorn, West Coast and Melbourne.
• ELO's line bets are Bulldogs, Kangaroos, Carlton, Fremantle, Essendon, Sydney, Geelong and Melbourne.

Constant Dripping ...

Only now am I becoming accustomed to the attritional manner with which our current wagering strategy accumulates wealth, when and such as it does.

This week, 14 of our 21 wagers were successful, yet this produced only a 4% gain for those Investors with the Recommended Portfolio and so exposed to all 21 of those wagers.

The New Heritage Fund won 5 of 7 bets, taking it to 21 and 8 for the season. Prudence won 4 of 5 to move to 17 and 5 for the season. Hope managed just 1 from 2, taking it to 6 and 7 for the season, while Chi-squared bagged 2 from 3 to move to 5 and 4 for the season. And, finally, Line Redux managed 2 from 4, leaving it at 13 and 15 for the season.

All of which drove net returns to Investors ranging from a 0.6% loss for the Investor with only Hope to a 10.8% gain for the Investor whose portfolio is all in New Heritage. Season-wide, all Investors remain in profit.

(By the way, these returns are a little higher than indicated by the Ready Reckoner I prepared because I used a price of $1.60 for the Bulldogs in the Reckoner when, in fact, we had them at $1.65.)

While I was updating the spreadsheet of match results for the season I was struck once again by the statistical regularity in the relative scoring of winners and losers, even when considered at the relatively low level of a single round. As you can see from the table below, winning teams have scored between 57% and 63% of the goals in any single round, and have racked up between 56% and 59% of the scoring shots. That's a phenomenally narrow range.

Anyway, onto tipping. Silhouette bagged another 7 from 8, a score matched only by STM II. Silhouette and Shadow now lead our tipping competition on 55 from 80, one tip clear of BKB on 54 from 80.

On level-stake, home-team-only wagering, commencing in Round 6, our top 7 tipsters and EI II are all showing profit. 

Finally, looking at line betting performances, ELO and Chi managed just 3 from 8 this weekend.

(When you've a moment, take a look at the current ladder. The Bulldogs, in third, are only 2 wins ahead of the Roos, in thirteenth, and 7 teams have a 5 and 5 record. It's shaping up as an extraordinary battle for the bottom 6 places in the top 8.)

Same Again?

We have a record 21 bets this weekend, again including a couple of tiddlers from New Heritage, and again covering all eight contests.

This is the overall story:

• New Heritage Fund: 7 wagers for about 37% of the Fund. The two largest bets are at $1.08 and $1.50, though there is a brave 2.15% wager on the Eagles away to the Blues.
• Prudence Fund: 5 wagers for about 18.5% of the Fund. The Bulldogs, at $1.65, and the Saints, at $1.08, carry the majority of the Funds at risk.
• Hope Fund: 2 wagers for about 11%, including what could only generously be described as a speculative wager on the Dons at $5.75 against the Cats. The other bet is on the Crows at $2.25, facing the Premiers.
• Chi-squared Fund: 3 wagers for around 12.5% of the Fund. The bets include a chunky wad on the Dogs and two smaller wagers on Freo and Collingwood.
• Line Redux Fund: 4 wagers for almost 17% of the Fund, the tiddler being on the Roos +6.5 against the Lions but only at $1.85 on line betting (not, as I was expecting, $2.10).

If you're an Investor, I recognise that, with this level of activity, it's hard to get your head around exactly what a given result will mean for your personal wealth. So, for the first time this season, I've decided to produce a Ready Reckoner for the round, which appears below:

The first block of data pertains to those Investors who have the Recommended Portfolio. The first row of that block provides information about the effect of different outcomes in the Carlton v West Coast game. If Carlton, the Home team for this game, wins head-to-head and on handicap, these Investors will suffer a 0.26% decline in the value of their total portfolio. If, instead, Carlton loses head-to-head (and so, by definition loses on handicap, it being the favoured team and so giving start), these same Investors will enjoy an increase of 0.54% in the value of their total portfolio.

Subsequent rows provide the same information for the round's other games. Subsequent blocks provide the same information for all games for other Investors.

On the far right of each block I've provided one measure of the importance of each game for each Investor, such measure being based on the difference between the best-case and worst-case outcomes. So, for example, the Bulldogs v Swans game is very important to those Investors with the Recommended Portfolio; best case they could make 3.51%, worst case they could drop 5.35%.

Turning next to tips:

• Carlton are favoured 11-2 over the Eagles. Only EI I and EI II are on the Eagles - the last and second last tipsters amongst our cadre.
• The Dogs are favoured 10-3 over Sydney. None of the support for Sydney comes from our top tipsters.
• Brisbane are 7-6 favourites over the Roos, but the Roos can count Shadow amongst their supporters. Both ELO and Chi have this as one of their Games of the Round, though Chi has opted for as many Games of the Round this week as Bruce McAvaney has on his list of "special" athletes.
• St Kilda are the unanimous pick over the Dees.
• Fremantle are, similarly, unanimous tips, in their case over the Tigers. This is, however, another of Chi's 1-point margin games and so another Game of the Round.
• Hawthorn are favoured 7-6 over Adelaide and have BKB, ELO and CTL amongst their supporters. Chi has this game as his third (yes third) Game of the Round; ELO has it as its second Game of the Round.
• Geelong are favoured 10-3 over the Dons. None of the top tipsters are opting for the Dons.
• Collingwood are favoured 10-3 over Port. Amongst Port's backers, the only tipster of note is CTL.

Finally, on Line Betting:

• Chi's line bets are West Coast, Sydney, Kangaroos, Melbourne, Richmond, Adelaide, Essendon and Port Adelaide.
• ELO's line bets are West Coast, Western Bulldogs, Kangaroos, St Kilda, Richmond, Adelaide, Essendon and Port Adelaide.

Everyone's A Winner

It's churlish, I suppose, to quibble about a round in which every Investor made money, but the Hawks' fourth-quarter performance, which turned a spread-covering 47-point lead into a line bet losing 22-point lead, was a desperately disappointing way to finish the weekend.

Regardless, Investors enjoyed net returns ranging from +0.5% to +9.3% leaving most up on the season by between about 1.4% and 5.6% except for MIN#002 who is now up by just over 30%. All of this came on the back of 13 successful wagers from 20, New Heritage bagging 5 from 6, Prudence 3 from 4, Hope 1 from 2, Chi-squared 2 from 3, and Line Redux 2 from 5.

That leaves the New Heritage Fund up about 6% on the season, Prudence up about 1%, Hope up 30%, Chi-squared down 10%, and Line Redux down 13%.

On tipping, Shadow and Silhouette continued to perform, each registering 7 from 8 to out-tip the bookies and, in Shadow's case, to take outright tipping leadership on 49 from 72, or just over 68%.

ELO notched 6 from 8 to stay within 2 tips of BKB. Chi also scored 6 to be 2 tips further back.

Rereading my original note on the heuristic tipsters I discovered that the level-stake strategy I'd found to be profitable was in fact one that commenced in Round 6 (not 7 as I've previously blogged) and that bet only when the tipped team was a true or notional Home team. I've changed the last column of the table in the margin to now track this strategy.

Across the seasons 2006 to 2008, the heuristics that have been most profitable when used with this strategy were RYL, EI II, FTS, CTL, Shadow and Silhouette. At this point in the season all 6 of those strategies are currently profitable, which is particularly surprising for EI II given its sub-standard overall tipping performance.

Looking next at line betting performances, ELO recorded another acceptable performance, gathering 5 from 8 to move to 40 from 72 for the season. Chi, meantime, managed just 3 from 8 to take him to 32 from 72 for the season, preserving his status as a line bettor best used with a contrarian approach (ie bet the other side of whatever he recommends).

Finally, a quick update on average prediction errors. ELO has continued to perform well on this measure and is now at 29.7 points per game for the season, just behind BKB on 29.3. Chi is still within cooee of the magical 30-point mark, though still on the wrong side of it. He's on 31.7 points per game, his record this weekend spoiled mainly by the size of Adelaide's and Sydney's victories.

A quick piece of trivia before I go. St Kilda, in coming from behind at three-quarter time to beat the Lions, were only the 5th team this year to do this. Of the 72 games so far played, 65 (which is 90%) have been won by the team leading at three-quarter time; the other two have been drawn at that stage.

Also, 60 games (or 83%) have been won by the team leading at half-time, and  49 games (68%) have been won by the team leading at quarter time. Clearly it's been a season to be in front.

More Bets, Smaller Outlay

We have twenty bets this weekend, though a few of them come firmly from the why-bother end of the wagering scale. And, once again, the Funds have organised themselves so that we've at least one wager in every game, and the New Heritage Fund has gone contrarian, leaving us with wagers on both sides of the same contest.

Here's a summary of what we have:

• The New Heritage Fund has made 6 wagers this week, though only 3 of them are of any import and these are on teams ranging in price from $1.13 to $1.55. So, all up, a fairly conservative week for this Fund.
• Prudence has found 4 wagers, 3 of them - as has been its wont these past few weeks - on the same team as the New Heritage Fund. The exception is its wager on West Coast in the game where New Heritage fancies the Pies.
• The Hope Fund, chastened it seems by last weekend's 0 from 2, has just 2 bets this weekend, both exceedingly modest and ultra-conservative.
• Chi-squared has followed up last weekend's single bet with a trio this week, the largest about 8% on the Roos at $1.70.
• The Line Redux Fund has recorded its highest level of activity for the season, registering 5 bets, 3 of them on teams giving start and 2 of them on teams receiving start.

So, as is becoming the custom, plenty to keep us occupied in that lot.

(There is still one line market yet to be posted, but I'm expecting it to be the Roos -6.5 in which case we'll have no interest.)

Turning next to tips:

• Geelong are favoured 12-1 over the Dogs, with only Home Sweet Home supporting the Dogs, based on its recognition that this alleged Geelong home game is being played Docklands and so is really a Dogs home game.
• The Roos are favoured 9-4 over Freo, though Chi has the Roos winning by less than a kick and so makes this one of his Games of the Round. None of our top 6 tipsters fancies Freo.
• Carlton are 8-5 favourites over the Crows, with ELO predicting just a 1 point win for the Blues, making this game its Game of the Round. Amongst the top tipsters, Shadow and Silhouette have opted for the Crows.
• West Coast are favoured 9-4 over the cold Pies. Amongst the 4 supporters for the Pies, however, are ELO, Shadow and Silhouette.
• Essendon are favoured 10-3 over the Tigers. Chi has the Dons getting home by 5 points, making this his alternative Game of the Round. All of our best performing tipsters are on the Dons.
• Port Adelaide are favoured 8-5 over Sydney and can count CTL, Shadow, Silhouette and Ride Your Luck amongst their supporters. 
• St Kilda are favoured 11-2 over the Lions, with EI I and EI II the only tipsters sufficiently impressed with the Lions' 36-point win over the Crows last weekend to side with the Lions over the in-form and ladder-leading Saints.
• Hawthorn are favoured 12-1 over the Dees, STM II being the Dees' sole supporter, still buoyed by its successful tip of the Dons back in Round 6 and still hampered by its unwillingness to tip the Hawks since its fateful mis-tip in Round 2.

Finally, on Line Betting:

• Chi's line bets are Western Bulldogs, Fremantle (TBC), Carlton, Collingwood, Richmond, Port Adelaide, St Kilda and Melbourne.
• ELO's line bets are Western Bulldogs, Kangaroos (TBC), Adelaide, Collingwood, Richmond, Port Adelaide, Brisbane Lions and Hawthorn.

Dude, Where's My Money?

We're now 8 rounds into the season and I'm guessing that some Investors might be curious about which teams and which Funds are responsible for their gains and losses.

The first table looks at the situation by team and by Fund.

The entries in the table reflect the profit or loss attributable to the team whose name appears in the left-hand column. So, for example, Adelaide has been responsible for losing 2.6% of the Funds held by those with the Recommended portfolio, 3% of the Funds held by MIN#001, none of the Funds held by MIN#002, 2.7% of the Funds held by MIN#015, and 7.9% of the Funds held by MIN#017.

Looking down the first column we find that the Eagles have been the source of largest losses for those with the Recommended Portfolio, thereafter followed by the Blues, the Crows and the Tigers. Essendon have provided the largest profits followed by Sydney, Geelong and St Kilda. Teams current in the top 8 have contributed to gains of 8.2% and those outside the top 8 have contributed to losses of 8.9%.

Next we turn to a Fund-by-Fund view. 

New Heritage's net loss of 3.7% is entirely the fault of the Crows, the Blues, the Tigers and the Eagles, whose losses have been offset to a less than full extent by the Lions, the Hawks, the Saints and the Swans.

Prudence has been hurt by the Blues, Tigers and Eagles, and bolstered by the Lions, the Saints and the Swans.

The Hope Fund's profit is almost solely down to the Dons, with smaller contributions coming from Freo and the Roos. The Dees, the Eagles and the Dogs have been the only value-destroyers.

Chi-Squared's had little joy. Freo and the Eagles have both inflicted losses, and the Lions have contributed the only, paltry profit.

Line Redux, after starting the season well, has now dropped into loss, largely due to the Crows, the Pies, the Hawks and the Dogs. Profit has come from the Cats, Port and the Swans.

So, now you know who to blame ...