No Triskaidekaphobia Here

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Clearly the Funds aren't superstitious. Why else would they, collectively, choose Round 13 as the round in which to - for most Investors - make their largest outlay?

Foremost for profligacy amongst the Funds is the New Heritage Fund, which this week has found five wagers totalling approximately 64% of Initial Funds at prices ranging from $1.04 (for the Cats) to $1.22 (for Adelaide). So, mercifully, not much in terms of risk for each bet, but a considerable amount in terms of total risk. Indeed, this is the largest amount that the Heritage Fund has wagered in any single round this season.

Prudence, too, has set a record for most Initial Funds at risk this week. It's wagered about 31% of the Fund on six wagers, five of them on the same teams as the New Heritage Fund, but the sixth on West Coast at - wait for it - $3. Since when does Prudence wager on 2/1 longshots?

The Hope Fund is a little more restrained, making just a single wager on Essendon at $2.65 for a smidgeon over 5% of the Fund.

Also somewhat restrained is the Line Redux Fund with 3 wagers this week totalling 15% of the Fund. Two of these wagers are on short-priced favourites offering 44.5 (Brisbane) and 47.5 (Geelong) points, and the third is on the Roos receiving 36.5 points.

Coyest of all is the Chi-squared Fund, which has found nothing to wager on this week.

As I hinted at earlier, combined these wagers represent the largest single-round outlay for all Investors except MIN #002. The table below provides detail about the outlay and return for each Investor profile for each round.

On then to this week's Ready Reckoner:

So, for those with the Recommended Portfolio and for MIN #001 and MIN #015, the Geelong v Port clash is that contest representing the largest potential swing between the best and worst results. For this same group of Investors, the Brisbane v Melbourne matchup represents the next largest swing.

(This week the Ready Reckoner includes information about the best- and worst-possible outcomes for each Investor across the weekend. For example, a perfect set of eight results for those with the Recommended Portfolio would lead to about a 7% gain and, by contrast, a anti-perfect set of eight result would lead to just over a 24% drop.)

To tipping:

  • Essendon, the market underdogs, are 9-4 favourites over the Blues. Amongst our best tipsters, BKB, ELO and CTL are all siding with the Blues, while Silhouette, Shadow and STM II are with the Dons. ELO, though coming down in favour of the Blues, has them winning by just 2 points, making this its Game of the Round.
  • Collingwood are unanimous favourites over Freo.
  • Adelaide are unanimous favourites over the Swans.
  • Brisbane, continuing the trend, are unanimous favourites over the Dees.
  • Hawthorn are 11-2 favourites over the Eagles. Our two least-performed tipsters in HSH and EI I are the Eagles' only friends.
  • Geelong, as is custom, are unanimous favourites over Port.
  • The Dogs are the round's fifth unanimous favourites, they over the Roos. Chi, however, has the Dogs winning by just 4 points and therefore has this as his Game of the Round.
  • St Kilda are 12-1 favourites over Richmond, the Tiger's sole supporter being EI I, which this year is just about as close to no support at all as it's possible to have.

The only game with any significant implications for our top tipsters is, therefore, Friday nights Dons v Blues clash.

On Line Betting this week, Chi's with all the teams receiving start. ELO differs only in that it's predicting the joint competition leaders in the Cats and the Saints to cover the spread.