Chi Returns As Hope Fades

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Chi, as a dog (which he is, so I guess that's a little redundant, but bear with me) is prone to inexplicable bursts of canine euphoria during which times he's apt to bound around like a dog a fraction of his age.

Whatever it is that transports him into these displays of friskiness clearly struck sometime this week just as he was contemplating his weekly wagers. Why else would he have decided to put 17.7% of the Fund on the Tigers at $3.75? His other wager is a much more sedate one: 4.6% of the Fund on the Pies at $1.55.

Prudence has sipped from the same chalice - dog slobber and all - as evidenced by its two most extreme wagers of 1.9% on St Kilda at $2.35, and 1.5% on the Dees at $2.10. As well as these it has three other wagers on teams at prices ranging from $1.30 to $1.55, the largest on being 4.9% on the Swans at $1.30.

New Heritage has also found a lot to like, with wagers in all but the Richmond v Adelaide game. These wagers include almost 12% of the Fund risked on teams priced above $2: Melbourne (5.4% @ $2.10), Port (3.1% @ $2.35) and St Kilda (3.1% @ $2.35). The four other bets range in size from 11.4% on Sydney @ $1.30 to a neither-here-nor-there 0.1% on Carlton @ $1.55.

Line Redux, the only other active Fund this weekend as we are again Hope-less, has found four wagers, three on teams receiving start and one on the Pies, giving start.

Together these produce a Ready Reckoner that looks a lot like this:

Unusually, due mainly to Chi's Richmond wager, all Investors except MIN #017 have roughly equal upside and downside risk this weekend.

On tipping we have:

  • Collingwood the unanimous favourites over the Dons.
  • West Coast 9-4 favourites over the Dees. Amongst the top six tipsters, the Dees have Shadow, Silhouette and STM II as supporters and the Eagles have BKB, ELO and CTL. Chi has this as one of his four - yes, four - one point margin predictions and hence Games of the Round.
  • Brisbane are 12-1 favourites over Port. Only HSH is tipping Port.
  • Adelaide are 12-1 favourites over the Tigers. Chi is the sole Tigers fan (hence the wager) but here too is prediction a single point margin making this another of his Games of the Round.
  • The Dogs and unanimous favourites over the Hawks.
  • Sydney are 8-5 favourites over the Roos. The top six tipsters are split as for the Eagles v Dees clash. This time Shadow, Silhouette and STM II are siding with the Roos and BKB, ELO and CTL are on the Swans.
  • St Kilda are 10-3 favourites over the Cats. Geelong have, amongst the top six tipsters, only BKB and ELO in their corner. Chi and ELO are tipping just one point margins and so have this as a/the Game of the Round.
  • Carlton are 11-2 favourites over Freo. Only HSH and EI II have tipped Fremantle. Chi though has this as another one pointer, which makes this his fourth and final Game of the Round.

So close are many of the games expected to be this weekend, anyone who tips the card deserves double points in their tipping competition. One measure of this expected closeness is the average points start per game on line betting.This week that statistic is 14.6 points per game, more than two points lower than the next-lowest this season, which was 16.9 points per game in Round 5.

Another measure is the combined probability of all underdogs winning in the round. The probability of that happening this week is about 3,800 to 1, which is roughly 12 surprisal bits. Previously, the lowest this has been this season was about 7,950 to 1, or approximately 13 surprisal bits, which it was in Round 1. In other words, the probability of all 8 underdogs winning this week is roughly twice what it's been for any other round this season.

For Line Betting:

  • Chi's on Collingwood, Melbourne, Port, Richmond, the Dogs, the Roos, the Saints and Fremantle.
  • ELO agrees except for swapping West Coast in for Melbourne.