More Green Shoots

This weekend we learned a great deal.

We learned - if we didn't already know - that the Saints are genuine contenders for the flag this year and aren't at all intimidated by the Cats' incredible win-loss record since 2007. We learned that it is possible to make money without relying on occasional improbable victories by rank outsiders and that last weekend's profit wasn't merely a statistical anomaly. We learned that the Hawks aren't good enough to go back-to-back and that the Dees aren't yet focussed on priority draft picks. And we learned that dogs of dubious breeding shouldn't be entrusted with large sums of cash.

Still, it was another glorious weekend's wagering. Combined, across this weekend and last, Investors have landed 31 winners from 33 bets, missing only a line bet on the Cats last weekend and a highly speculative head-to-head bet on the Tigers at $3.75 this weekend. Even then, neither of these bets lost by more than 3 goals.

New Heritage has so far this season won 38 from 49 bets and is up about 45%. Prudence has won 35 from 44 bets and is up about 19%. Hope, inactive this week, has won 7 from 16 bets across the season and is up by about 33%. Line Redux has won 20 from 39 bets and is finally back in the black, although only by about 1%. Chi-squared is what could politely be called the 'outlier'. It's won 7 from 14 bets and is down by around 33%, over one-half of that loss attributable to this weekend's (obvious in hindsight) folly.

For most Investors, the weekend's successes added between about 8c and 9c to their share price. The two exceptions were MIN #002, who was betless this weekend and so marked time, and MIN #017, whose Heritage-only portfolio leapt over 27c.

These increases leave most Investors up by between about 12% and 15% on the season, the exceptions yet again being MIN #002, who's up 33%, and MIN #017, who's up nearly 45%.

Here's a chart showing each Investor's triumphal march:

On tipping, this week's best performance was HSH's 7 from 8. Most other top tipsters scored 6 from 8, though BKB managed just 5, dropping it into joint 3rd place with STM II on 78 from 112 (70%). Shadow and Silhouette remain joint leaders, now on 82 from 112 (73%). CTL fills out the top 5 places with 76 from 112 (68%).

Only one tipster, ELO, is now showing a loss on level-stake, home team only wagering, commencing in Round 6. Applying this same wagering strategy to the tips of our top 3 tipsters would have yielded profits of over 11 units, which represents an ROI of over 10%.

Whilst ELO might not be performing well on head-to-head wagering, it continues to excel on line betting, recording 6 from 8 this weekend to move to 65 and 47 for the season and a profit to level-staking of 10.57 units. Chi had a good line-betting week too, picking 7 from 8 this week, but he's still at less than 50% (he's 54 and 58) for the season.

In running down the Dockers in the final term on Sunday night, Carlton became only the 8th team this season to come from behind at three-quarter time to win and the 1st team to do so when trailing by 2 goals or more at the last change.

As I've commented before, this has not been a season for winning after trailing. About 68% of teams who've led at the first change (ignoring games that were tied at this change) have gone on to win. This is about 1% point higher than the all-time average. Teams leading at the half (again ignoring games tied at the half) have won 81% of the time, up 2% points on the all-time average, and teams leading at the final change (ignoring games tied at this point) have won 93% of the time, up a startling 7% points on the all-time average.

This latter statistic is not, as you might suspect, the result of teams tending to lead by more at the final change this season compared to previous seasons. In fact, even teams with quite slender leads have been hanging on to win at historically high rates. For example, teams leading by between 6 and 11 points have won 85% of the time (up 13% points on the all-time average), and those leading by between 12 and 17 points have won 100% of the time (up 18% points on the all-time average).

The only three-quarter time lead range that has proved more vulnerable this season than has been the case historically is a lead of between 1 and 5 points, which has been defended only 55% of the time this season, 3% points under the all-time average.