21 Again

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Tonight I thought I'd wait a little longer to see if TAB Sportsbet would post the final 2 line markets before I wrote this blog but, as of a little after 8pm, they've not.

The two line markets awaited are those for the Carlton v Collingwood game, on which I don't expect we'll have a wager, and for the Fremantle v West Coast game, on which I expect we will. This week's Ready Reckoner is based on us having 5% of the Line Redux Fund on Freo, probably giving 9.5 points start. I'll confirm this as soon as I can.

Including the assumed Dockers wager, we'll again have 21 wagers this weekend, though Chi-squared's marginally more temperate behaviour means that Investors will have, in aggregate, less money at risk.

New Heritage has 6 wagers totalling about 55.5% of the Fund, the largest being a 12.7% wager on the Lions at $1.13. The other 5 wagers are each sized 9.2% or larger and are on favourites, the longest priced of which is Fremantle at $1.60.

Prudence also has 6 wagers, totalling almost a quarter of the Fund, and also has its largest wager - 6% in its case - on the Lions. Its most speculative wager though is on the Dees and is for 3.1% at $2.40. (The Dees have blown significantly since we placed this bet, which is rarely a happy portent.)

Chi-squared has found 4 wagers totalling a little over 25% of the Fund. It too fancies the Dees - if 14.6% can rightly be labelled merely a fancy. Its 3 other wagers are on favourites.

Hope has just 2 bets this weekend, 4.9% on the Dees at the aforementioned $2.40, and 1% on the Crows at $1.50.

Line Redux has 3 bets (including the prospective Freo wager), all on teams giving start.

Every Fund has wagered something on the Crows this weekend, making them only the second team this year - the other being Sydney - to earn such unamimous wagering support. There's some proverb about eggs and baskets that I can only vaguely recall at this point.

Here then is the weekend's Ready Reckoner:

It's a dark weekend indeed when your fate is in the hands of the Dees, especially when draft picks are at stake.

Next, let's turn to tipping, where we have:

  • Carlton 9-4 favourites over Collingwood. Though the Pies have scant support, 3 of their 4 supporters come from amongst our top 5 tipsters in the form of BKB, CTL and Silhouette. ELO tips Carlton, but only by 2 points, making this its Game of the Round.
  • Geelong 8-5 favourites over the Hawks. Amongst our tipping elite, only Shadow is on the Hawks. Chi's tipping a Cats victory, but only by 3 points, making this his (only!) Game of the Round.
  • Fremantle 7-6 favourites over the Eagles, with CTL, Shadow and Silhouette all tipping the Eagles.
  • Brisbane unanimous favourites over the Roos.
  • St Kilda, perhaps surprisingly, unanimous favourites over the Dogs.
  • Melbourne 7-6 favourites over Sydney, with BKB and CTL the only credentialled tipsters foretelling a Swans victory.
  • Essendon 10-3 favourites over the Tigers. STM II stands alone amongst its peers in tipping the Tigers.
  • Port Adelaide 7-6 favourites over the Crows, with half of the Crows' support coming from CTL, BKB and Silhouette.

On line betting, assuming Freo give 9.5 points start and Carlton receive 6.5 points start (which, as I type this, is no certainty):

  • Chi's on Collingwood, Hawthorn, Fremantle, the Kangaroos, St Kilda, Melbourne, Richmond and Adelaide
  • ELO's on Carlton, Hawthorn, West Coast, the Kangaroos, St Kilda, Melbourne, Essendon and Adelaide

Update on Friday morning: Fremantle line wager is confirmed. We're giving only 8.5 start. Also, as expected, no Carlton line bet. New Round Summary now available for download.