You might think, if you'd wagers on three teams (albeit outsiders) that led by 8, 7 and 42 points at half time, that at least one of them would take home the biscuits, especially the one that led by 42 points. If you'd thought this over the last weekend, you'd be wrong.
The Dons were the first of the disappointments, leading the Dogs by 8 points at the half only to concede 11 goals in the second half to go down by 33 points. Next came Fremantle, who enjoyed a 7 point buffer at the half and who maintained legitimate hopes until late in the final term only to falter in the wet against the Lions and lose eventually by 15 points.
Then, on Sunday, the Tigers, who led by 7 straight goals (yes, 7) at the half, barely managed to cling on for a draw, which was enough to stop Investors losing a great deal on the game, but wasn't enough to provide them with a profit. In draws, head-to-head wagers pay out at half-price, so teams at prices below $2 pay back less than the amount wagered. Investors had the Tigers at $1.95.
Indeed it was a weekend littered with close finishes for many Investors. The Cats lost on line betting by half a point, Freo won on line betting by two and a half points, and Port won on line betting by a point and a half. Still, most Investors would've swapped those two favourable line betting results for a Tigers head-to-head victory.
In total, New Heritage won 4.5 of 6 wagers and fell 3.3%, Prudence won 4.5 of 7 wagers and fell 4.2%, Hope lost its only bet and fell 5.5%, Chi-squared won 0.5 of 3 wagers and fell a precipitous 33.3%, and Line Redux won 2 of 4 wagers and fell 1%.
As a result, the Recommended Portfolio fell 9.4% to leave it just 4.5% ahead for the season. Other Portfolios fell by between 3.3% and 9.5% to leave them in front for the season by amounts ranging from 7.5% to 35.4%.
On tipping, RYL had the best possible round, landing 7.5 from 8. Silhouette and Shadow bagged 6.5 and 5.5 respectively to jointly lead outright on 93.5 from 128 (73%), 5 tips ahead of BKB on 88.5 from 128 (69%) and a further tip ahead of CTL and STM II on 87.5 from 128 (68%).
Level-stake, home team only, start at Round 6 wagering on the heuristic tipsters has now been profitable for all tipsters except ELO, Chi and HSH. Shadow, Silhouette and STM II are currently up by over 11 units using such a wagering strategy - if only we'd known ...
Chi's and ELO's line betting results were once again poor this weekend, with Chi scoring 3 from 8 and ELO just 2 from 8.
All told, a weekend best forgotten.