2019 - Round 24 : Overs/Unders Revisited

As a number of you pointed out, last week’s blog about likely scoring was written under the misapprehension that the first week of the Finals was not this week, but last.

So, I’ve decided to re-examine the markets today (Tuesday), which is two days before the first game of the round, and therefore more in keeping with our usual practice. There’s been movement in three of the TAB, and two of the Easybet totals, and movement in one of the Easybet line markets.

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2019 - Round 23 : MoSHPlay Update

There are five games this week where MoSHPlay’s forecast margins differs from MoSHBODS’ by about a goal or more:

  • Collingwood v Gold Coast: MoSHPlay Pies by 54; MoSHBODS Pies by 41

  • Fremantle v Geelong: MoSHPlay Cats by 26; MoSHBODS Cats by 13

  • Adelaide v St Kilda: MoSHPlay Crows by 33; MoSHBODS Crows by 23

  • Essendon v Port Adelaide: MoSHPlay Dons by 0.02; MoSHBODS Dons by 8

  • Melbourne v Richmond: MoSHPlay Tigers by 14; MoSHBODS Tigers by 19

The only game in which MoSHPlay is tipping a different winner than is MoSHBODS is in the North Melbourne v Hawthorn game, where MoSHPlay favours Hawthorn by 4 points, and MoSHBODS favours North Melbourne by 2 points.

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2019 - Round 22 : MoSHPlay Update

There are five games this week where MoSHPlay’s forecast margins differs from MoSHBODS’ by about a goal or more:

  • Collingwood v Gold Coast: MoSHPlay Pies by 54; MoSHBODS Pies by 41

  • Fremantle v Geelong: MoSHPlay Cats by 26; MoSHBODS Cats by 13

  • Adelaide v St Kilda: MoSHPlay Crows by 33; MoSHBODS Crows by 23

  • Essendon v Port Adelaide: MoSHPlay Dons by 0.02; MoSHBODS Dons by 8

  • Melbourne v Richmond: MoSHPlay Tigers by 14; MoSHBODS Tigers by 19

The only game in which MoSHPlay is tipping a different winner than is MoSHBODS is in the North Melbourne v Hawthorn game, where MoSHPlay favours Hawthorn by 4 points, and MoSHBODS favours North Melbourne by 2 points.

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2019 - Round 22 : Too Close To Call

The average bookmaker handicap for Round 22 is a ridiculous 8.6 points per game, the lowest for a single round in all of the history we’re tracking.

That average would have been lower still but for the final game of the round, Hawks v Suns, where the expected margin is about 7 goals. All eight of the remaining games have expected margins of under 2 goals, and five of them have expected margins of under 1 goal. If you’re in a tipping contest, this round will almost certainly see some big changes on the leaderboard.

With this week’s average dragging it down, the 2019 all-season average now stands at 16.8 points per game, which is over 4 points per game below the 2018 average.

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2019 - Round 21 : MoSHPlay Update

There are five games this week where MoSHPlay’s forecast margins differs from MoSHBODS’ by about a goal or more:

  • Collingwood v Gold Coast: MoSHPlay Pies by 54; MoSHBODS Pies by 41

  • Fremantle v Geelong: MoSHPlay Cats by 26; MoSHBODS Cats by 13

  • Adelaide v St Kilda: MoSHPlay Crows by 33; MoSHBODS Crows by 23

  • Essendon v Port Adelaide: MoSHPlay Dons by 0.02; MoSHBODS Dons by 8

  • Melbourne v Richmond: MoSHPlay Tigers by 14; MoSHBODS Tigers by 19

The only game in which MoSHPlay is tipping a different winner than is MoSHBODS is in the North Melbourne v Hawthorn game, where MoSHPlay favours Hawthorn by 4 points, and MoSHBODS favours North Melbourne by 2 points.

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