As a number of you pointed out, last week’s blog about likely scoring was written under the misapprehension that the first week of the Finals was not this week, but last.
So, I’ve decided to re-examine the markets today (Tuesday), which is two days before the first game of the round, and therefore more in keeping with our usual practice. There’s been movement in three of the TAB, and two of the Easybet totals, and movement in one of the Easybet line markets.
For most-likely low-scoring game we still have all four opting for the Cats v Pies game, and for most-likely high-scoring game we still have all four choosing Giants v Dogs, and MoSSBODS having it as a tie with Eagles v Dons.
As most-likely low-scoring team we still have unanimity about it being Essendon, and for most-likely high-scoring team unanimity about it being their opponents, West Coast.
It is also still the case that no team is expected to register three figures.
MoSSBODS is still recommending one possible wager, an overs bet in the Thursday Eagles v Dons game, but the forecast for this Thursday is far better than the one for last Thursday, so Investors will now be acting on that recommendation.
The overlay in that game is just over 9 points. In the three other games they are all between about 2 and 5 points.