2019 - Round 24 : Overs/Unders
/The MoS twins are this week forecasting slightly higher totals than the bookmakers in every game, most of all in the two games most likely to be rain-affected.
For most-likely low-scoring game we nonetheless have all four opting for the Cats v Pies game, and for most-likely high-scoring game we have all four choosing Giants v Dogs, though MoSSBODS has it as a tie with Eagles v Dons.
As most-likely low-scoring team we have unanimity about it being Essendon, and for most-likely high-scoring team unanimity about it being their opponents, West Coast.
No team is expected to register three figures.
PERFORMANCE TO DATE
The mean absolute error (MAE) honours for the final week of the home and away season were shared, with MoSHBODS lowest for Game Margins and for Home Team Scores, the TAB lowest for Totals, and Easybet lowest for Away Team Total Scores.
That left the TAB 1st overall for the season on Total Score and Game Margin MAEs, and Easybet 1st on Home Team and on Away Team Score MAE.
MoSHBODS now trails the TAB on Total Score MAE by 73 points, and MoSSBODS trails the TAB on Game Margin MAE by 63 points.
WAGERS
This week MoSSBODS has identified just one possible wager, but it’s an overs bet in a game where the forecast is for rain, so we’re passing on it.
The overlays in the three other games are only between about 2 and 5 points.
Last week there were four unsuccessful unders wager with the TAB. That moved MoSSBODS’ record against the TAB to 16 and 18, and left that against Easybet at 23 and 20, dropping the overall win rate to 51% for the season.
Across the entirety of the round, MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS landed on the right side of the TAB and of Easybet in a hard-to-believe 1 of 9 games. That took MoSSBODS to a 51% record for the season against the TAB and Easybet, and took MoSHBODS to a 51% record against the TAB, and a 52% record against Easybet.
