The Top 4 teams remained unchanged on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS this week, which sees us entering the Finals with a MoSSBODS Top 4 of Richmond, Brisbane Lions, Western Bulldogs, and Geelong, and a MoSHBODS Top 4 of Richmond, Western Bulldogs, Geelong, and Collingwood.
On MoSSBODS, three of the Finalists are not ranked in its Top 8: GWS (9th), West Coast (10th), and Essendon (16th). On MoSHBODS, only Essendon (13th) misses the Top 8.
In total, only five teams were re-ranked by MoSSBODS this week, and 10 by MoSHBODS, but none on either System by more than two places.
The two Systems now differ in their rankings of five teams by exactly three spots (Port Adelaide, West Coast, St Kilda, Sydney and Essendon), and just one team, Brisbane Lions, by more than three spots.
On MoSSBODS, 1st and 17th are now separated by only 7.2 Scoring Shots (and 2nd and 7th by only 1.7 Scoring Shots), and on MoSHBODS 2nd and 10th are separated by only 11.2 points.
For comparison, the equivalent gaps at the same time last season were:
MoSSBODS 1st vs 17th: 16.8 Scoring Shot difference
MoSSBODS 2nd vs 7th: 3.5 Scoring Shot difference
MoSHBODS 2nd vs 10th: 19.2 points
The underlying Combined MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Team Ratings remain extremely highly correlated.
MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now rate the same 10 teams as being above-average (those in the upper-right quadrant of the chart above).
On the Component Ratings, on offence we see the Western Bulldogs taking top spot away from Brisbane Lions on MoSSBODS, which aligns that Top 2 now with MoSHBODS’ (although MoSSBODS has Richmond in 3rd and Geelong in 4th, while MoSHBODS has the opposite ordering).
On defence, MoSSBODS now has it Richmond, Collingwood and then Hawthorn, while MoSHBODS has it as Richmond, Hawthorn, and then Collingwood.
On offence, no team is ranked more than three places differently by the two Systems, but on defence we have St Kilda 11th on MoSSBODS and 16th on MoSHBODS. No other team is ranked more than three places differently by the two Systems.
On MoSSBODS, 8 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (no change), 8 are rated negatively on both (up 4), none is rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (no change), and 2 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (down 4).
Only two teams are in different quadrants under the two Systems:
GWS (negative offence and positive defence on MoSSBODS, positive offence and defence on MoSHBODS)
Sydney (negative offence and defence on MoSSBODS, negative offence and positive defence on MoSHBODS)
Next, let’s compare each team’s current ratings with those of teams from the past at the same point in their respective seasons (ie after 23 rounds of the home-and-away season). Note that we lose any team from a season with a home-and-away portion that didn’t span at least 23 rounds. This week, as you’ll see, this means we lose a lot of teams.
Teams shown as red points are teams that eventually finished premiers, and those shown in orange finished as runners up.
If we focus purely on the seasons from 2000 onwards, we get the chart below, which also contains fewer teams than we’ve had in previous weeks, but which tells a similar story about the relative abilities of this year’s teams in historical terms.
With the 2019 Finalists now determined, we can compare the current MoSHBODS and MoSSBODS Ratings of the those confirmed Finalists with the individual and average Ratings of all the Finalists from 2000 to 2018.
In the first pair of charts we look at the individual team ratings, and colour teams based on by where they bowed out of the race.
Again, the most striking feature of these charts is the relatively low rating on many of the Finalists, especially Essendon.
That feature is even more emphasised if we plot the average rating of the Finalists for each of the years 2000 to 2019.
Here we can see that the 2019 crop of Finalists is rated poorly both in terms of offensive skills (2nd- or 4th-worst, depending on which System you choose) and defensive skills (3rd-worst).
The following animation shows the path that each team has followed, at the end of each round, to get to its current MoSSBODS rating.
ChiPS left its Top 4 teams unchanged this week, while MARS left Geelong in 1st but elevated Richmond and Collingwood ahead of West Coast.
ChiPS re-ranked six teams this week and MARS re-ranked nine, with none moving by more than two spots on either System.
That’s left the two of them disagreeing about the rankings of only Sydney and Fremantle by more than two places.
We can see the continuing high level of correlation between ChiPS and MARS Ratings by charting them.
Looking across the rankings of all four Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find that:
Western Bulldogs has the widest range of rankings (from 2nd on MoSHBODS to 9th on ChiPS and MARS)
West Coast, St Kilda and Sydney have the next-widest ranges of rankings (for West Coast from 4th on ChiPS and MARS to 10th on MoSSBODS, for St Kilda from 11th on MoSSBODS to 17th on MARS, and for Sydney, from 8th on ChiPS to 14th on MoSSBODS)
No other team is ranked more than four places differently across the four Systems.
Gold Coast remains the only team ranked identically by all four Systems, but seven other teams’ rankings cover only two or three values.
Essendon remain ranked between 4 and 8 places lower by the various Rating Systems than they are by the competition ladder, while the Brisbane Lions are ranked 4 places lower by all but MoSSBODS than they are by the competition ladder.
As well, Fremantle are ranked 4 places lower by all but MARS than they are by the competition ladder, Hawthorn are ranked 4 places higher by all but MoSSBODS than they are by the competition ladder, and Sydney are ranked 4 to 7 places higher by all but MoSSBODS than they are by the competition ladder.