2019 - Team Ratings After Round 21

The Brisbane Lions took 1st place on MoSSBODS this week and Port Adelaide snared 3rd, while Richmond stayed top on MoSHBODS as a resurgent Geelong leapt into 2nd.

That left MoSSBODS with a Top 3 of Brisbane Lions, Richmond, and Port Adelaide, and MoSHBODS with a Top 3 of Richmond, Geelong, and Brisbane Lions.

The big movers on MoSSBODS were Western Bulldogs (up 4 spots into 5th), Essendon (down 4 spots into 17th), and GWS, Collingwood, and North Melbourne (down 3 spots each), while those on MoSHBODS were Geelong (up 4 spots into 2nd), Western Bulldogs (up 3 spots into 6th), Collingwood and Essendon (down 4 spots each), and North Melbourne (down 3 spots into 11th). No other team moved by more than 2 spots on either System.

In total, MoSSBODS changed the ranking of 15 teams this week and MoSHBODS changed the ranking of 11, which left the Systems now differing in their rankings of only two teams by more than three spots: West Coast, ranked 9th on MoSSBODS and 5th on MoSHBODS, and Port Adelaide, ranked 3rd on MoSSBODS and 7th on MoSHBODS.

On MoSSBODS, 1st and 12th are now separated by only 4.8 Scoring Shots (and 3rd and 12th by only 2.9 Scoring Shots), and on MoSHBODS 2nd and 11th are separated by only 10.9 points.

The underlying Combined MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS Team Ratings are even more highly correlated this week.

MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS now rate the same nine teams as being above-average (those in the upper-right quadrant of the chart above).

On the Component Ratings, on offence we see Brisbane Lions still in top spot on both Systems and ahead now of Western Bulldogs on both, while on defence, Richmond remains 1st on MoSSBODS and Geelong has grabbed top spot on MoSHBODS after keeping North Melbourne to just 14 points and 9 scoring shots.

On MoSSBODS, 5 teams are now rated positively on offence and defence (down 1), 5 are rated negatively on both (down 1), none are rated positively on offence but negatively on defence (down 1), and 8 are rated negatively on offence but positively on defence (up 3).

Only three teams are in different quadrants under the two Systems:

  • Geelong and GWS (negative offence and positive defence on MoSSBODS, positive offence and defence on MoSHBODS)

  • St Kilda (negative offence and positive defence on MoSSBODS, negative offence and defence on MoSHBODS)

Looking across all 18 teams we find that:

  • on offence, no team is ranked more than two spots differently by the two Systems

  • on defence, only Brisbane Lions, West Coast, and St Kilda are ranked more than three spots differently by the two Systems

Next, let’s compare each team’s current ratings with those of teams from the past at the same point in their respective seasons (ie after 21 rounds of the home-and-away season). Note that we lose any team from a season with a home-and-away portion that didn’t span at least 21 rounds.

Teams shown as red points are teams that eventually finished premiers, and those shown in orange finished as runners up.

It remains the case that no team has a Combined Rating above the median for all previous Grand Finalists at this point in the season, but now only Richmond and Brisbane Lions are above the lowest decile. At the other end, Melbourne, Carlton, Sydney, Fremantle, St Kilda, Essendon, and Gold Coast all have Combined Ratings lower than that of any previous Grand Finalist at this point in the season.

If we focus purely on the seasons from 2000 onwards, we find, again, only Richmond and Brisbane Lions above the lowest decile.

The following animation shows the path that each team has followed, at the end of each round, to get to its current rating, and shows Brisbane Lions narrowly retaking the lead from Richmond after the latest round.

MoSSBODS Ratings At End of Rounds 1 to 21.gif

ChiPS left Richmond in top spot this week, but elevated Geelong into 2nd, relegating West Coast into 3rd, reversing the changes it made last week. MARS left Geelong in 1st, West Coast in 2nd, and Richmond in 3rd.

Richmond’s rating lead over Geelong on ChiPS is 6.7 Rating Points, while Geelong’s lead over West Coast expanded to 6.6 Rating Points.

ChiPS and MARS both re-ranked nine teams this week, with only Essendon (down 3 on ChiPS) and Western Bulldogs (up 3 on MARS) moving by more than two spots on either System.

That’s left the two of them disagreeing about the ranking of only Sydney by more than two places.

We can see the continuing high level of correlation between ChiPS and MARS Ratings by charting them.

Looking across the rankings of all four Systems and ordering the teams based on the current competition ladder, we find that:

  • West Coast has the widest range of rankings (from 2nd on MARS to 9th on MoSSBODS)

  • Sydney and Western Bulldogs have the next-widest range of rankings (Sydney, from 9th on ChiPS to 15th on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS; Western Bulldogs from 5th on MoSSBODS to 11th on ChiPS)

  • Essendon and Port Adelaide are next (Essendon 12th on MARS, and 17th on MoSSBODS; Port Adelaide 3rd on MoSSBODS, and 8th on ChiPS)

No other team is ranked more than four places differently across the four Systems.

Gold Coast is the only team ranked identically by all four Systems, but five other teams’ rankings cover only two or three values.

Essendon now are ranked between 5 and 10 places lower by the various Rating Systems than they are by the competition ladder.