2018 - Round 3 : Lots More Disagreement
/The tipping carnage in Round 2 was always a possibility this week given the general slightness of favouritism in each of the nine contests.
Read MoreThe tipping carnage in Round 2 was always a possibility this week given the general slightness of favouritism in each of the nine contests.
Read MoreIt's a short week this week (and my non-footy, pays-the-bills working life is about to get a little busy), so I'm providing the updated team ratings tonight.
Read MoreOnly three TAB mid-week favourites finished in front this week so BKB, just like all but one of the Head-to-Head Tipsters, registered 3 from 9 for the round.
Read MoreWhenever MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS have opinions so significantly different from the bookmakers', my prior, I admit, tends always towards MoS being in error, but if I always acted based on that prior I'd never have the admittedly occasional windfall rounds.
Read MoreAccording to the bookmakers - and the empirical data strongly supports the hypothesis that they know a bit - no team is more than about a 3-goal favourite this week, which should make for an interesting if difficult-to-tip round.
Read MoreFor the first time since the end of the 1980 season, Richmond has top rating on MoSHBODS after jumping two places to overtake Adelaide and Sydney this week.
Read MoreWith seven favourites and one equal-favourite emerging victorious from the embers of Round 1, it was fairly predictable that we'd see strong performances across the board from a number of MoS forecasters.
Read MoreSome now-familiar early-season coyness by the bookmakers in posting totals markets meant that this post had to be delayed until today (Wednesday). Those markets only popped up onto the websites sometime early this afternoon - while I was on a client site as fate would have it, though I doubt they moved much if at all before I captured them.
Read MoreI'm back this week and feeling much like Tennyson (ie a little rusty) but looking forward to resuming the routine.
Read MoreLast year was a very good one here on MoS, with one or other of MoSSBODS' or MoSHBODS' algorithms out-tipping the bookmakers on head-to-head, margin and probability forecasting.
Given that, it would seem silly to change much at all - so I won't be.
Read MoreMoSSBODS predicted the winner of the Grand Final and also went closest, amongst our four forecasters, to predicting the game Margin as well as the Home team and Away team scores.
Read MoreMoSSBODS swapped Richmond and Adelaide this week, catapulting the Premiers into top spot and relegating the Minor Premiers to 3rd. MoSHBODS, conversely, had the Tigers closing the gap to the Swans but still finishing 3rd, and the Crows hanging on for 1st by about 3 points.
Read MoreMoSSBODS_Marg, in tipping the Tigers, extended its lead at the top of the Leaderboard, finishing the season three tips clear of the pack on 135.5 from 207 (66%). The two RSMP Tipsters finished in joint 2nd place, one tip ahead of MoSHBODS_Marg.
Read MoreThis week, our lone contrarian forecaster is MoSSBODS who's narrowly come down in favour of the Tigers. All the other Head-to-Head Tipsters have gone with the Crows.
Read MoreSydney slipped back into 2nd on MoSSBODS this week, leaving the two MoS Systems now in perfect agreement about the order of the Top 6 teams. That result required MoSHBODS to make its only adjustment of the week, swapping GWS into 4th for Port Adelaide.
Read MoreC_Marg's errant prediction of a Giants win was the only thing preventing a 2 from 2 performance from all the MoS Head-to-Head Tipsters this week. The all -Tipster average was, instead, 1.9 from 2.
Read MoreOnly C_Marg has dared tip against the favourites this week, it opting for an upset Giants win over the Tigers by about 3 points.
Read MoreSydney slipped back into 2nd on MoSSBODS this week, leaving the two MoS Systems now in perfect agreement about the order of the Top 6 teams. That result required MoSHBODS to make its only adjustment of the week, swapping GWS into 4th for Port Adelaide.
Read MoreOnly Home Sweet Home and Consult The Ladder tipped both winners this week, but that had little effect on the Leaderboard for the Head-to-Head Tipsters, which still has MoSSBODS_Marg two tips clear at the top.
Read MoreWith the bookmaking markets posted, all of the MoS algorithms that use prices as inputs have what they need to do what they do, so, the bye week notwithstanding, there's no reason not to post the full set of forecasts today.
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