2017 - Totals and Team Scores Forecasting
/MoSSBODS predicted the winner of the Grand Final and also went closest, amongst our four forecasters, to predicting the game Margin as well as the Home team and Away team scores.
It was, however, narrowly beaten out in being closest to the Total by Centrebet.
Neither MoSSBODS nor MoSHBODS were on the right side of the TAB or Centrebet Totals this week, which meant that both finished with 104 from 207 (50.2%) records against the TAB, and 105 from 207 (50.7%) records against Centrebet.
At season's end then we have:
- MoSHBODS with the smallest mean absolute error (MAE) on game Margins and Away team scores
- Centrebet with the smallest MAE on Home team scores
- The TAB with the smallest MAE on Totals
In terms of mean errors we have:
- MoSSBODS, MoSHBODS and Centrebet (narrowly) tending to overstate game Margins from the Home team perspective by between 0 and 2 points per game
- All four forecasters tending to overstate Home team scores by between 1 and 2 points per game
- MoSSBODS, the TAB and Centrebet tending to overstate Away team scores by about 0.5 to 1.5 points per game
- All four forecasters tending to overstate Totals by about 2 to 2.5 points per game
