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Matter of Stats

Wagers & Tips

Matter of Stats
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    • Scoring History
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April 03, 2017

2017 - Team Ratings After Round 2

April 03, 2017/ Tony Corke

Adelaide have retained number 1 ranking on MoSSBODS and MoSHBODS after their 24-point and 9- Scoring Shot victory over Hawthorn.

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April 03, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
April 02, 2017

2017 - Round 2 Results - That's Much Better

April 02, 2017/ Tony Corke

After last weekend's inauspicious start, it's a relief to report that all three forecaster families performed far better this week.

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April 02, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
March 31, 2017

2017 - Round 2 - Updates to Tips and Predictions

March 31, 2017/ Tony Corke

It usually takes a few weeks of a new season to iron out the main bugs in updated and new scripts (and why, exactly, are bugs always 'ironed'?) and to get into the swing of knowing what data goes where. This season has been no exception.

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March 31, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
March 30, 2017

A Refresher on Overround and Vig

March 30, 2017/ Tony Corke

If you pootle around the MoS website - and, by pootle, I mean search - you'll find a number of posts using the terms 'overround' and 'vig' (or 'vigorish'). Today I want to provide a quick refresher on what those terms mean and why they should be important to you if you ever think about placing wagers of your own.

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March 30, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
March 29, 2017

2017 - Round 2 : Over/Under Update

March 29, 2017/ Tony Corke

This week, the TAB's over/under markets went up well before Centrebet's, and Centrebet released theirs over an extended period, which means that the data in the table below spans an atypically long timespan since each market has been recorded as close to its opening as I was able.

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March 29, 2017/ Tony Corke/ 3 Comments
March 28, 2017

2017 - Round 2 : Convergence

March 28, 2017/ Tony Corke

It's hard to find a dissenting voice this week amongst the MoS Head-to-Head Tipsters, with even Home Sweet Home tipping against the favourites in only three games.

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March 28, 2017/ Tony Corke/ 2 Comments
March 27, 2017

2017 - Team Ratings After Round 1

March 27, 2017/ Tony Corke

We noted last year that Adelaide, as far as the MoS Team Rating Systems were concerned, were very unlucky not to progress further in the competition. Their big win over GWS this weekend only served to reinforce that view.

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March 27, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
March 26, 2017

2017 - Round 1 Results - Some Calibration Required

March 26, 2017/ Tony Corke

From an accuracy point-of-view, the first round of 2017 was a poor one for the MoS Head-to-Head Tipsters, though that's probably to be expected when only four favourites and an equal-favourite prevail.

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March 26, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
March 22, 2017

2017 - Round 1 : Over/Under Update

March 22, 2017/ Tony Corke

We'll need to review our approach to the over/under market this season, I think, since, if this week is a guide, opening markets will be less generously priced.

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March 22, 2017/ Tony Corke/ 2 Comments
March 19, 2017

2017 - Round 1 : Is This Thing On?

March 19, 2017/ Tony Corke

I'm flipping the order of the sections in the weekly Wagers & Tips blog this year, providing the tips and predictions before the wagers. I think that everyone who comes here is interested in the tips, but only a subset are interested in the wagers as well. And, populism is all the rage right now ...

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March 19, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
February 17, 2017

Rating the AFLW Teams (Post R2)

February 17, 2017/ Tony Corke

Today, a couple of new voices share their analysis here on MoS: sport lovers Declan Walpole and PhD student, Robert Nguyen, who've teamed up to have crack at rating the AFLW Teams after two full rounds, and using their ratings to predict the results for the upcoming round.

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February 17, 2017/ Tony Corke/ Comment
January 19, 2017

The MoS Tipsters, Predictors and Funds for 2017

January 19, 2017/ Tony Corke

If history chooses to repeat one of the themes of 2016, please let it be the largely unembarrassing performances of MoS' bookmaker-input free Tipsters and Predictors, and the resultant profitability of the MoS Funds. (I'd wish for something grander on the global stage, but I suspect that's just courting disappointment.)

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January 19, 2017/ Tony Corke/ 2 Comments
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Matter of Stats

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