2015 - Team Ratings After Round 25
/With a surprising result in one of the weekend's two games and, more relevantly, surprising margins in both, Rating changes, especially on MARS, were larger than we'd expect in the Finals.
Read MoreWith a surprising result in one of the weekend's two games and, more relevantly, surprising margins in both, Rating changes, especially on MARS, were larger than we'd expect in the Finals.
Read MoreBy now it's one of a fairly small number of scripts that weekends seem to act out for Investors.
Read MoreThis week sees the two Home teams comfortable favourites on the TAB at the time of writing, especially the Hawks, whose $1.30 price tag makes them unavailable for wager for the Head-to-Head Fund. It's responded by placing a moderately sized wager on the other Home team, the Swans, who at $1.55 the Fund sees as exceptional value.
Read MoreThere's not much movement at all on ChiPS this week as we enter the Finals series and the multiplier used to update Team Ratings plummets to its lowest value of the season.
Read MoreThis week's wagering was the antithesis of last week's - though, regrettably, entirely in keeping with the majority of the season - with all four bets providing no return, leaving the Head-to-Head Fund down by 1.5c, the Line Fund down by 1.3c, and the Overall Portfolio down by 1.4c. Across the season then the Portfolio is now down by 34.1c.
Read MoreEntering the Finals there's always a chance that the Funds will find the prices and handicaps on offer too unattractive to induce a wager, and this thought, coupled with the very subdued nature of the Funds' wagering over the later rounds of the Home and Away season, had me expecting a wagerless weekend.
Read MoreAt the end of the 2015 Home-and-Away Season, ChiPS Ranks seven of the eight Finalists amongst its Top 8 teams, the odd one out being the Dogs, which it Ranks 9th, preferring Port Adelaide for 8th spot.
Read MoreOne bet, one win: 100% record. How much nicer would the wagering season have seemed had I been able to say that just a little more often.
Read MoreIt's been anything but a usual week in the wagering markets for the AFL at the TAB, with speculation surrounding - and then actual - team changes leading to frequent and prolonged suspensions of some markets, significant delays in the posting of others, and a final set of prices fairly different from what we would have seen had teams been playing their regular squads.
Read MoreA quiet week on ChiPS Team Ratings, with the only change of note the elevation of Fremantle into 5th at the expense of the Kangaroos.
Read MoreOn Saturday, GWS comfortably covered their 25.5 point spread, starting the weekend off in a winning way for Investors before Sunday and the Saints rolled around and the 26.5 points start they were receiving proved about 12 goals too little.
Read MoreThere were five home teams that the Head-to-Head Fund could have wagered on this week - those priced at $1.50 or more - but it opted to risk none of them, content to rest on its 2 from 3 performance over the course of the last three rounds.
That left the Line Fund responsible for the weekend's excitement and it chose to back up on the Giants, this week giving rather than receiving start, and to take a literal punt on the Saints for only the second time this season.
Read MoreLike the heads-up ending to a Texas Hold 'Em competition it was all mid-table CHiPS action this weekend in the AFL, with positions 4th to 11th all changing hands.
Read MoreThere's nothing to see here. Move along.
Read MoreIt's taken most of the season, but both the Head-to-Head and Line Funds seem now to have come to the same conclusion: that the TAB Bookmaker has been pricing home teams unattractively this year in both the head-to-head and line markets. Taking the time for wise reflection is often, but not always, the most lucrative course of action.
Read MoreChiPS jiggled the Rankings of another four pairs of teams this week, swapping the Roos and Freo in 4th and 5th, the Dogs and Pies in 7th and 8th, the Crows and Cats in 9th and 10th, and the Saints and Dees in 13th and 14th. More a light dusting than a clean-out-your-garage kind of weekend.
Read MoreIt's no longer news when the Funds finish a round down by a little, so I'll not spend much time relaying the details of that outcome yet again this weekend.
Read MoreInvestors can have Sunday off this weekend, Round 20's action, such as it is, all being confined to Friday and Saturday. On Friday, we've taken the Swans at -22.5 in the line market, while on Saturday we've a tiny head-to-head wager on the Dons at $4 along with two line bets, one of them on the Dons with 26.5 start, and the other on Port Adelaide giving 14.5 start.
Read MoreChiPS found reason to re-Rank seven teams this week, though only Port Adelaide moved by more than a single place, they slipping two spots into 11th, allowing the Cats and the Crows to grab 9th and 10th respectively.
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It's almost certainly too late for the Line Fund to drag itself back into profit for the season, but it did show further evidence of the previously-elusive form this weekend, landing two of its three wagers and missing out by only a kick on landing all three.
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